|
|
May 21, 1999/6 Sivan 5759, Vol. 51, No.34
Time to get back to messy business of peace
MARTY LATZ
Special to Jewish News
The obstacles appear insurmountable. Thousands have died at the hands of the other. Ethnic strife and hatred run deep within the psyches of both sides. Trust is nonexistent. And the slaughter of innocents has been a negotiation playing card.
Yet, they will sit down this summer to search for peace - Israelis, Palestinians, perhaps even the Syrians and their Lebanese puppet state. Each appears to want peace. The stakes have rarely been higher. Thousands of lives hang in the balance.
Uzi Arad, senior national security advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently shared his thoughts on this critical issue at the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's (AIPAC's) Phoenix Chapter. AIPAC was formed 40 years ago to lobby Congress for legislation strengthening the U.S.-Israeli relationship.
Arad, who sat with Netanyahu at the Wye Plantation Summit last October, painted a fairly gloomy picture of the upcoming negotiations. All the "easy" issues have been resolved. Those remaining represent the most intractable ones. The gaps are, according to Arad, significant. So what issues remain, and how will the negotiations proceed? It's tough to judge which remaining issues engender the most highly charged emotional reaction from both sides - but the permanent status of a new Palestinian entity must rank among the top.
The important questions concerning the Palestinians remain to be faced as a new government, led by Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak, comes to power. Will it be a "state" or some lesser type of self-governing entity? What is a "state?" Most states claim the right to use any and all necessary means to defend themselves against hostile states. Will a Palestinian entity include an army, a police force, military-type weapons or missiles?
The Palestinians are also demanding a "viable" state. Arad is not sure what this means. Can a Palestinian entity comprising two separate geographic areas connected only by a road through Israel (Gaza and the West Bank) be viable?
Another issue for negotiation is the status of Jerusalem. Israel claims an undivided Jerusalem as its capital, and Barak has said there will be no compromise on this. The Palestinians violently disagree and want a part of Jerusalem. And what about the new entity's borders, and the future of Israeli settlements within those borders?
Finally, the parties must resolve the status of Palestinian refugees living around the world. If 3 million to 5 million Palestinian refugees returned, Arad said they would "swamp Israel."
It's now difficult to evaluate either side's priorities. All the issues appear critical. When the private negotiations begin, the parties will pick up signals - conscious and unconscious - that will help them evaluate the other side's priorities. Their interpretation of these signals will form the basis for tradeoffs.
In the end, though, it will come down to one question: Does each side and their constituencies believe the final proposal satisfies the fundamental interests better than the likely alternative? If they do, they'll agree. If not, they'll walk. I'm betting neither side ultimately walks.
It won't be easy. It'll take longer than expected. And each side will start to walk and put one foot outside the peace door as far as they can, but they'll pull it back at the last minute. Why? Their alternative - continued violence, terrorism, deaths, poverty, refugee camps, etc. - is likely worse than a peace agreement. Let's hope that's true.
Marty Latz is a Valley attorney and negotiation consultant.
|
