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April 2, 1999/16 Nisan 5759, Vol. 51, No. 27
Arafat gambit brings big payoff with E.U. 'Balfour Declaration'
GIL SEDAN
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - The Palestinian people have gotten a Balfour Declaration of their own. But whi-le the original declaration, which recognized the right of the Jewish people for a national homeland, was the work of Great Britain alone, the statement backing Palestinian statehood emerged March 26 from the 15 members of the European Union.
Predictably, this broad show of support for Palestinian national aspirations was hailed by Palestinian officials, but denounced in Israel.
Capping a three-day summit of European leaders meeting in Berlin, the declaration reaffirmed the Palestinians' "continuing and unqualified right to self-determination, including the option of a state." The declaration, in which the European leaders stated their "readiness to consider the recognition of a Palestinian state in due course," called on Israel to conclude final-status negotiations - which touch on issues including statehood - with the Palestinian Authority within a year.
Pressuring Israel even further, the E.U. leaders said Palestinian self-determination is "not subject to any veto." With their unequivocal backing, the E.U. leaders are giving Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat a reward - international recognition for a Palestinian state - in exchange for his willingness to postpone a unilateral declaration of statehood. In this respect, observers noted, a strategy crafted by Arafat appears to have reaped a major payoff.
For months, Arafat has been threatening to unilaterally declare statehood on May 4, the end of the interim period in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking under the terms of the Oslo accords. The final-status talks, which have barely gotten off the ground, were supposed to have been completed by that date.
In recent weeks, Arafat has met with European and American officials to win their assurances of support for statehood if he postpones the declaration. During a meeting with Arafat last week in Washington, President Clinton fell short of giving such an assurance, reiterating U.S. policy that a state can only emerge through negotiations with Israel. But at the same time, Clinton said he would press Israel to engage in "intensive, serious and credible" peace talks that would have a deadline for completion.
Also last week, Arafat met in Ottawa with Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who gave his support for Palestinian statehood. But, like Clinton, Chretien said it should be reached after negotiations with Israel, not as a result of a unilateral declaration. Echoing the U.S. desire that those negotiations not be open-ended, Chretien said the talks cannot go on "forever."
The various statements, capped by the E.U. declaration, all came as a result of Arafat's threat to make a unilateral pronouncement. Never mind that Arafat might never have followed through on the threat. A unilateral declaration in early May, coming weeks before the Israeli elections, could have played directly into the hands of the one politician Arafat does not want to see re-elected - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Just the same, Palestinian analysts were almost unanimous in saying that whatever Arafat does, Netanyahu will use it for his own benefit. If Arafat unilaterally declares statehood, they said, Netanyahu would use it to prove that Arafat is an extremist. If Arafat does not issue the declaration, the premier would announce that he, Netanyahu, had prevented the move.
Whether or not he ever intended to follow through, the threat of a unilateral declaration allowed Arafat to play a leading role on the international diplomatic chessboard. Palestinian officials believe that in the wake of the E.U.'s statement of support, and the meeting with Clinton, it is now highly unlikely that Arafat will make the unilateral declaration. "Theoretically, there is still the option of proclaiming a state on May 4," Ziad Abu Ziad, a member of the Palestinian Cabinet, told JTA. "But one can assume that we will opt for a postponement."
The postponement, even for a year, involves a simple calculation on Arafat's part: Better to wait and have international support for Palestinian statehood, which will prove a valuable card indeed in the final-status talks with Israel. In addition, perhaps there will be a new Israeli leader to negotiate with after the May elections.
Just the same, a postponement of Palestinian aspirations will undoubtedly test Arafat's standing among his people at a time when his political stock has been falling. The man whose regime has been strongly criticized for corruption and abuse of power will now be telling Palestinians to bear with him because statehood will soon be theirs.
The response he gets from his people will likely mirror their reaction to the E.U. declaration. The rejectionists, including leftists and Islamic fundamentalists, saw nothing special in it. Arafat supporters rejoiced.
In Israel, meanwhile, the reaction to the declaration was harsh indeed. The Israeli leadership - preoccupied with the coming elections - was caught off guard by the declaration, which came just weeks after E.U. officials reiterated their stance that they view Jerusalem as a separate entity from Israel under the terms of the 1947 partition plan that called for the internationalization of the city.
But once the declaration emerged from the Berlin summit, Israeli leaders from all sides of the political spectrum came out against it. Invoking the memory of the Holocaust, Netanyahu said last week, "It is a shame that Europe, where a third of the Jewish people was killed, should take a stand which puts Israel at risk and goes against our interests." He also said that E.U. officials had "reduced their possibility" of being an honest broker in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
JTA correspondent Bill Gladstone in Toronto contributed to this report.
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