|
|
March 12, 1999/24 Adar 5759, Vol. 51, No. 24
Israel readies to pick its political quarterback
KENNETH W. STEIN
Emory University
Israel's election campaign for the 15th Knesset and prime minister is like none other in Israel's history. Barring an unlikely war with the Arab world or some heinous physical violence perpetrated against Israelis, the dominant election issue will not be the Arab-Israeli peace process. The election will be a referendum on economic promises not kept, wrenching domestic and social issues, the incumbent prime minister's style, and an across-the-board decline in foreign relations.
There are other firsts. Tones and pace for managing relations with the Arab world differ, but Likud, Labor, and Centrist Party leaders reflect similar basic views: the West Bank and Gaza will be shared with the Palestinians, a way needs to be found to leave southern Lebanon quickly, negotiations with Syria should be restarted, and Israel must retain security control over Jerusalem as an undivided city.
A gnawing 9 percent unemployment rate persists; Israel's annual growth rate has slowed from 6 percent to 2 percent. A stridently antagonistic segment of the ultra-Orthodox community has openly slandered Supreme Court justices and challenged the legitimacy of the secular Supreme Court to make judgments it believes are heavenly defined. A churning anger envelops many Israelis because, while their daughters and sons do obligatory army service, exemptions are easily obtained for students who are engaged in religious study. Matters of rabbinical control over civil procedures - divorce, inheritance, marriage - so long bubbling beneath the surface, have erupted with unrestrained passion. Israel's diplomatic relations with Europe, many Arab and Muslim states, and the United States have deteriorated since Benjamin Netanyahu's election in May 1996.
Several months prior to Israel's last election, four bombs were exploded by Palestinian extremists. They severely hurt the election chances of Shimon Peres, the incumbent Labor Party prime minister. So far, neither the Palestinian community nor other Arab states have done or said much to influence Israeli voters. Arafat has suddenly grown speechless about declaring an independent state on May 4, 1999. He does not want to create anxiety among Israeli voters, though he may not be able to control an outbreak of violence or attacks against Israelis. In the days and months prior to the 1988, 1992, and 1996 Israeli elections, when such dreadful acts occurred, the incumbent in office was blamed.
Approximately 4.5 million Israelis are eligible to vote in the May 17 elections. Again, as they did for the first time in the 1996 elections, Israeli voters will cast separate ballots for prime minister and for their favorite political party list. For example, it is possible for someone to vote for the Labor Party but also vote for Bibi Netanyahu as prime minister. All polls indicate that none of the major party candidates for prime minister will receive the absolute majority needed to avoid a run-off. Therefore, this will likely be Israel's first election where the parliamentary election results are known before the prime minister is chosen. In essence, the campaign conducted for the scheduled May 17 Knesset election may differ dramatically in content and tone in the run-off election for prime minister, scheduled for June 1.
Any party that receives 1.5 percent of the total vote will be represented in the Parliament; in the last elections, it took approximately 19,000-plus votes for a party to secure a seat in the 120-member Parliament. In the 1996 elections, there were more than a dozen parties that presented party lists for the Knesset; so far, more than thirty parties have registered to participate in the May 17 elections.
This is the first Israeli election in which a major party candidate for prime minister, Yitzhak Mordechai, is of Sephardic (Iraqi) Jewish origin. Across the political spectrum, political parties have dispatched worn-out politicians and elevated fresh candidates to higher positions on party lists. In the run-up to the 1996 elections, at least three would-be prime ministerial candidates - Rafael Eitan, David Levy, and Ariel Sharon - withdrew their candidacies and were co-opted by the Likud Party. Parties have until March 30 to adjust their party lists, so additional mergers can be expected. After that, the real campaigning begins.
More than any other prime minister in Israel's history, the performance record, leadership style, and character of the sitting prime minister are principal issues in this campaign. Netanyahu has been scrutinized, vilified, and jostled by all shades of the Israeli media. His leadership style has significantly influenced political party formation. Former ministers are running against him: former Science Minister Beni Begin is heading his own right-wing party, former Defense and Finance Ministers Mordechai and Dan Meridor have established their own Centrist Party, and former Foreign Minister Levy is poised to join the Labor Party.
Unprecedented possibilities exist because the parliament will be elected on May 17, but perhaps not the prime minister. The campaign for the Knesset is likely to be more issue-oriented; if there is a run-off for prime minister, it will be laden with nasty personal accusations. Its central theme is likely to be: do you want four more years of Netanyahu?
In the two weeks between the Knesset election and the run-off, a particular candidate for prime minister could indicate the names of ministerial appointments in his proposed cabinet. A sophisticated Israeli electorate will do their own math and generate permutations for who will lead what ministry. With issues of religion and state increasingly acrid, the prime ministerial candidate who promises appointments that will limit or expand religious influence over daily life could sway voters. Verbal promises made to constituencies such as the Russian immigrants, Israeli Arabs, or others could also make a difference in the outcome. For the first time, the Israeli voter may be able to analyze and evaluate the proposed governmental teams and their promises, and then choose an appropriate political quarterback.
Kenneth W. Stein is the William E. Schatten Professor of Contemporary Middle Eastern History and Israeli Studies at Emory University.
|
