Looking back, looking ahead

CARL ALPERT

Alpert, who was born in Cambridge, Mass., began writing his column in 1937. He moved to Israel with his wife, Nechama, in 1949 and began working in the new public relations and fund-raising department at Haifa's Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, the Jerusalem Post reported. After 14 years there, he was appointed executive vice chairman of the Technion's International Board of Governors.

Over the years, Alpert's column was published in close to 70 Jewish newspapers and magazines around the world. He continued writing the column until this past March.

An employees' center at the Technion was named in Alpert's honor two years ago. Alpert also was involved in the World Union of Jewish Journalists and the Association of Americans and Canadians in Israel.

Below is one of Alpert's final columns. He will be missed.

Many of us base our moods and expectations for the future in the Middle East on what we read in the press or see on television. Outbreaks of terrorism and collapse of peace talks inevitably lead to pessimism, and we hasten to search for further developments that may alter the trend. The history of the past 50 years, if portrayed in graphs alone, would depict a wildly erratic series of lines jumping up and down without rhyme or reason.

Back in 1993, when the skies were blue and relations with our neighbors were most promising, Arkia Airlines lost no time in drawing up a regular schedule of flights from Tel Aviv directly to Beirut, Damascus, Amman and Akaba. Flight times were determined and rates fixed. However, they stopped short of actually printing the tickets.

On the basis of our experience we have learned not to rely either on predictions or on specific occurrences. Tomorrow is another day. We recall the scare that was voiced just five years ago, as our civilization turned into the year 2000, and appropriate adjustments were made to our whole computer system.

There were serious computer experts who predicted that the whole international network faced an apocalypse because of what became known as the 2000 Bug. The crisis passed.

Problems dealing with even minor matters were reflected on the screen and in the press, and at least provided entertainment for the public. Such was the case, for example, 13 years ago, when the minister of agriculture issued a decree barring the popular food firm, McDonald's from importing its french-fried potatoes on the grounds that locally grown potatoes could meet the requirements just as well. A case was prepared for the courts, and threats were made that the Free Trade Agreement with the United States was being undermined. The subject disappeared from the news, and presumably a satisfactory agreement was reached.

It was in 1994 that the Society for the Prevention of Smoking turned to the State Comptroller for help. The requisite Knesset committee had approved an amendment that would bar smoking in all the country's workplaces, with provision for space for smokers. The difficulty was that the prime minister and acting health minister refused to sign the bill. He was Yitzhak Rabin. His aides sought to avoid public controversy on the matter except to say that the premier, as a heavy smoker himself, would feel "hypocritical" about signing such a bill. Circumstances soon resulted in another minister assuming the health post, and the bill was passed.

The records of recent years contain hundreds of predictions with respect to the future of the Middle East. They range all the way from a serious study of political and economic factors which indicated that Israel will be wiped off the map within 10 years, to another analysis that declares that the only alternative is a comprehensive war that will end with a mass emigration of the Palestinian Arabs to neighboring states, and the proclamation of Israel sovereignty over the entire area between the Jordan River and the sea.

To those who have faith in long-range predictions, we recall the expectations of the world's major businessmen, politicians, religious leaders and journalists who attended the Columbian Exhibition in Chicago in 1893 and were asked what the future held in store for the United States in the next 100 years. Five of their predictions came true. Others were completely off target.

The five: the telephone would replace the telegraph; general income tax would be imposed; buildings would be air-conditioned; women would be given the right to vote; cities would become collections of neighborhoods.

The others: Railroads would become the major means of transportation; unemployment would disappear; buildings would be constructed of aluminum; hypnosis would replace anaesthesia; laws would be so simply and clearly expressed that there would no longer be need for lawyers; the problem of alcoholism would be solved by religious influence; destruction of the forests would result in construction from stone and metal only; the problem of crime would be solved by control of natural increase of criminals; democracy would take over throughout civilization.

So much for long-range predictions.