Jewish vote still strongly Democratic

Every few years, Republicans hopefully predict a political realignment of the Jewish community. Last year again we heard a drumbeat of "analysis" suggesting Jews would desert the Democrats for a George Bush who appeared supportive of Israel.

Thanks to a recent analysis of all available polling data from the 2004 elections conducted by The Solomon Project, a non-partisan Jewish educational organization, we now know that the percentage of American Jews who voted Democratic in 2004 is even higher than previously thought. Whereas the initial exit poll numbers indicated that Sen. John Kerry received 74 percent of the Jewish vote, this new analysis shows that he actually received 77 percent of the overall Jewish vote.

This polling analysis brought together every available piece of data into one place, and analyzed that data set to arrive at the most complete picture we've ever had of Jewish voting behavior in America. And the findings came as no surprise to me: American Jews remain overwhelmingly Democratic.

Not only did Kerry receive a higher share of the Jewish vote than previously thought; over the last three presidential elections, Jews have consistently voted 28-30 points more Democratic than the country at large. This analysis also showed that a large majority of American Jews think of themselves as Democrats. Between 65 and 74 percent of Jews identify as Democrats, while estimates of the percentage of Jews who identify as Republicans range from 11-21 percent.

A well-organized campaign was mounted against Kerry in the Jewish community in the 2004 elections - a campaign designed to move the Jewish vote toward George Bush. That effort failed, as the American Jewish vote for the Democratic candidate was just 2 percent less in 2004 than in 2000, when history was made with the first Jew on the ticket. Moreover, Kerry's vote among Jews was significantly higher than the average support for Democrats among Jews since 1972 (68 percent).

What explains the Jewish community's strongly Democratic orientation and its rejection of the anti-Kerry campaign?

For one thing, Kerry had a perfect voting record on Israel. Moreover, a panoply of domestic issues from religious freedom, to reproductive rights, to the environment and church state issues, the American Jewish community remains overwhelmingly aligned with the positions of the Democratic Party.

The Bush campaign's only hope to gain traction in the Jewish community was by using Israel as a divisive political issue - a tactic that serves Israel very poorly. As American Jews looked past the campaign ads and toward Kerry's real voting record, their concerns were put to rest, judging by the outcome.

The bottom line is that the American Jewish community remains overwhelmingly Democratic - even more Democratic, in fact, than we believed in the immediate aftermath of the 2004 elections. Democrats would be wrong to use these findings as an excuse to become complacent. But if nothing else, they showed that the Democratic message in the Jewish community succeeded - where Republican efforts to make inroads failed.

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY 02) is chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Jewish Outreach Council.

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