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May 13, 2005/Iyar 4 5765, Volume 57, No. 37
Cease-fire on verge of collapse
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Just three months after it was ushered in at a peace summit in February, there are growing signs that the cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinians may be on the verge of collapse.
There has been a dramatic increase in the number of terrorist attacks in the Gaza Strip; there are fears tensions between Hamas and the Palestinians' ruling Fatah movement could spill over into violence against Israel; and an ongoing spate of mutual recriminations is straining relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
So far the Israel Defense Forces have been showing restraint, even in the face of renewed Palestinian shelling of Israeli civilians. But if there is more shelling, and especially if it causes fatalities, Israel is likely to retaliate and the situation could spiral out of control.
The cease-fire began well enough. In the immediate aftermath of the summit in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, terrorist attacks tapered off in February and March; there was renewed coordination between Israeli and Palestinian Authority forces and some P.A. success in curbing terrorism, including the uncovering of about 20 weapons-smuggling tunnels on the Egypt-Gaza border.
But in April the trend was reversed. Coordination declined and there was an exponential rise in the number of terrorist attacks. According to IDF figures, in the last week of April alone there were 48 terrorist operations in Gaza, including the firing of Kassam rockets at the Israeli town of Sderot a day after Israeli forces killed a Palestinian terrorist in the West Bank.
Because of the upsurge in terrorism and his conviction that the Palestinian Authority is not doing enough to stop it, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon froze moves in early May to release 400 Palestinian prisoners. Sharon said he would release the prisoners only if the Palestinian Authority clamps down on terrorism.
Senior officers in the IDF's Southern Command say rogue militias plan to step up terror attacks before the withdrawal and make sure it takes place under fire.
That's a nightmare scenario the IDF wants to avoid at all costs, and to avoid it the army has contingency plans for a huge operation in Gaza. Defense sources say it would be similar to Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, when Israel recaptured all Palestinian cities and towns in the West Bank in response to massive terrorism.
The Palestinians retorted that gestures by Israel, such as releasing the prisoners, would enhance their ability to curb terrorism, and charged that the Israeli government seemed to have no idea how important the prisoner issue is to the Palestinian people as a symbol of their national struggle.
Fatah warned Sharon of dire consequences. Hamas was more explicit: It threatened a return to terrorism.
To shore up the brittle peace process, P.A. President Mahmoud Abbas is calling for an urgent meeting with Sharon.
"There is a need for a meeting between Sharon and me to push the peace process forward," he declared in early May. "We must discuss implementation of the agreements between us."
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