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December 10, 2004/Kislev 27 5765, Vol. 57, No.15
Sharon plays hardball in Likud
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Convinced that 2005 will be a year of great peace opportunities, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is throwing his considerable political weight behind a coalition with the Labor Party.
Sharon sees a Likud-Labor partnership, bolstered by at least one fervently Orthodox party, as the ideal tool for carrying through his disengagement plan and beyond. To that end, Sharon is following a two-stage strategy: First, ensuring that the centrist, secular Shinui Party - which has refused to sit in government with fervently Orthodox parties - leaves the coalition, and then breaking resistance in Sharon's own Likud Party to a partnership with Labor.
The first stage of Sharon's strategy already has gone off nicely. Shinui pulled out of the government last week over a deal between Likud and the ultra Orthodox United Torah Judaism party under which the government would allocate about $65 million in next year's budget for religious institutions and needs.
Sharon may not have planned Shinui's walkout, but he did nothing to stop it. It was a question of simple arithmetic: Likud and Shinui together had 54 seats in the Knesset, a minority in the 120-member house, but Likud and Labor would have a majority of 62.
Replacing Shinui with Labor will be a bit trickier, though, because of opposition within Likud to an alliance that party hard-liners fear will drag the government leftward. But Sharon was strengthening his hand ahead of a key Likud Central Committee vote that was set for Dec. 9.
A defeat in the Central Committee almost certainly would lead Sharon to go to new national elections. A victory, and a coalition with Labor, would enable the prime minister to push forward on peace moves with the Palestinians, Syrians and others.
At a business conference Dec. 6 in Tel Aviv, Sharon spoke of "restoring Israel's regional and international position" and declared that it would be "a terrible mistake" to miss opportunities in 2005 because of petty party political squabbles.
According to aides, Sharon is particularly buoyed by what he sees as a potential strategic partnership with Egypt for promoting regional stability. Given Egypt's leadership position in the Arab world, Sharon believes the recent sea-change in relations between Cairo and Jerusalem could create an atmosphere conducive to accommodation with Israel throughout the region, and that this could come to fruition next year.
Analysts see the new Egyptian attitude to Israel as especially significant, given the ostensibly more pragmatic Palestinian leadership that has emerged in the wake of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat's death, and ongoing Syrian efforts to renew a peace dialogue with Israel.
These developments have encouraged some outside players to start thinking in terms of a final Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
In pursuing a stable coalition with Labor, Sharon hopes to be able to exploit the winds of change on the Arab side and, at the same time, resist international pressure on Israel to make concessions Sharon feels are too risky.
The stronger and more stable his government, Sharon reasons, the better Israel's chances of making the best of what 2005 has to offer.
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