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December 3, 2004/Kislev 20 5765, Vol. 57, No. 14
Palestinian politics are in turmoil
GIL SEDAN
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - With a show of political wile from his Beersheba prison cell, Marwan Barghouti has solidified his status as a major player in the Palestinian camp and thrown the race for Palestinian Authority president into disarray.
In a swift succession of public pronouncements and reversals, the Fatah militia leader first signaled his intent to run to succeed the late Yasser Arafat as P.A. president, then threw his support behind newly chosen PLO head Mahmoud Abbas - and then, at the 11th hour, changed his mind again, tossing his hat back into the ring.
When Barghouti said last week that he wouldn't run and would support Abbas, the road to the presidency seemed clear for the 69-year-old moderate, the preferred candidate of both Israel and the United States.
But in a surprise about face Dec. 1, Barghouti paid the registration fee required of presidential candidates just hours before the deadline, and reportedly had collected a sufficient number of signatures to run.
He appeared likely to take part as an independent, since Abbas is the candidate of the dominant Fatah faction, which includes Barghouti.
It's unclear how Barghouti's candidacy will affect the race. Still, his heightened status as a political force, together with the likelihood that Hamas will field candidates in parliamentary elections come May, shows that the path to Palestinian-Israeli peace remains beset with obstacles.
It also represents another salvo in the ongoing battle between the old and young guards in the Palestinian leadership. Barghouti, serving five life sentences for murder, waits in his cell for the moment of truth.
Barghouti, 45, who hails from Ramallah, has been involved in politics since age 15. As a student, he was a leader of the first intifada. As Fatah leader in the West Bank, he was a staunch supporter of the Oslo Accords and of a "two-state solution" - that is, Israeli and Palestinian states living side by side - until the second intifada began in September 2000.
Barghouti was among those who guided the violence, directing terrorist attacks by Fatah's Al-Aksa Brigade.
In 2002, Israeli commandos apprehended Barghouti at his Ramallah home. He was tried and sentenced for his role in the murder of Israelis.
Barghouti rejected the court's legitimacy, denied the charges and used his trial as a soap box to denounce Israel's presence on land the Palestinians want for a future state.
It's unclear what Barghouti's chances for victory are. He was said to be second only to Arafat in popularity among Palestinians. A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that 27 percent of Palestinians consider Abbas the leading Palestinian figure, with Barghouti coming in second at 15.2 percent.
Win or lose, a Barghouti candidacy could split Fatah - and, for that matter, the secular Palestinian movement - and strengthen the militantly Islamist Hamas.
Now the real political game begins. Elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council - the first to be held since 1996 - are scheduled for May 2005.
What makes these elections particularly important is the fact that Hamas likely will take part, in a challenge to Fatah.
From now on - win or lose - every significant political move by the Palestinian Authority will have to take Barghouti into account.
Barghouti isn't alone in awaiting a moment of truth. Because it probably will field candidates in the parliamentary elections - though not in the presidential contest - Hamas is likely to be part of a national coalition.
With Hamas at the Cabinet table and Barghouti maneuvering from prison, Abbas may find it tough to negotiate with Israel.
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