October 29, 2004/Cheshvan 14 5765, Vol. 57, No. 9
Sharon wins vote, could lose government
LESLIE SUSSER
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Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won a resounding victory in the Knesset for his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank, but the vote ended with his Likud Party in tatters and on the verge of splitting in two, with Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leading the rebels.
The upshot is that although Sharon secured Knesset approval for his plan, which includes the dismantling of 21 Jewish settlements in Gaza and four in the northern West Bank, it's not at all clear whether he will have the political clout to see it through.
Backed by the opposition Labor and Yahad parties and opposed by almost half of the Knesset faction of his own Likud party, Sharon mustered 67 votes for his disengagement plan, with 45 against and seven abstentions.
The Oct. 26 vote does not authorize the actual removal of any settlements. The withdrawal is to be carried out in stages beginning next year, with Cabinet approval necessary before each move.
Still, Sharon had hoped that such a clear margin of victory in the Knesset would squelch demands for a national referendum on the withdrawal and open up new coalition-building possibilities.
But Netanyahu's move against Sharon means that his government could soon fall, and instead of moving ahead smoothly toward dis-engagement, Israel could find itself caught up in a stormy election.
For four hours before the vote, Netanyahu and three other leading Likud mini-sters - Limor Livnat, Yisrael Katz and Danny Naveh - closeted themselves in a Jerusalem hotel, working on a proposal to condition their support in the Oct. 26 Knesset vote on a com-mitment by Sharon to hold a national referendum on disengagement.
Sharon rejected the demand, even refusing to meet the four ministers before the vote. He argues that referendum advocates simply are looking for a way to delay the disengagement plan indefinitely, and accused them of planning a putsch against him.
Things came to a head in the last hour before the vote. The National Religious Party, which is part of Sharon's government but which opposes disengagement, served the prime minister with an ultimatum: Hold a referendum or else.
NRP Cabinet mini-ster Zevulun Orlev said the party had received rabbinical approval to remain in Sharon's coalition until the end of its term in November 2006, even if the referendum goes against them. But if Sharon refuses to hold a referendum, Orlev warned, the party would leave the coalition within two weeks.
Then, immediately after the vote, Netanyahu dropped his bombshell: Unless Sharon agrees within 14 days to hold a referendum, he, Livnat, Katz and Naveh will leave the coalition as well.
What that means is that if Sharon doesn't buckle the Likud will split in two, with Netanyahu and Sharon on opposing sides.
Sharon finds himself left with three possible choices: Build a new coalition or parliamentary pact with Labor and the left; agree to hold a referendum; or push for early elections.
None of the choices is easy. To get a majority coalition with Labor and the left, Sharon would need the support of at least 17 of Likud's 40 legislators.
Agreeing to hold a referen-dum would be a monumental reversal and would leave Sharon severely weakened. And early elections would be a major gamble that he well might lose.
Sharon is unlikely to agree to the referendum demand. His most likely game plan will be to try to formalize the support of Labor and the left and keep going as prime minister as long as he can, betting that his opponents in the Likud and parties further to the right won't force elections because they too fear losing their Knesset seats.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.