|
|
September 24, 2004/Tishri 9 5765, Vol. 57, No. 4
Egypt's role in Gaza withdrawal
GIL SEDAN
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - While Israelis were engaged in a heated national debate over disengagement from Gaza, the political scene on the Palestinian side was rife with drama of its own.
As Dov Weisglass, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's outgoing chief of staff, was coordinating disengagement plans with the Americans, the Palestinians were busy negotiating with Omar Suleiman, head of Egypt's secret services.
The message was clear: It will be difficult - if not impossible - to move anything, anywhere, in Gaza without the active involvement of Egypt and the United States.
And as difficult as Sharon's challenges may be, the Egyptian job seems equally as challenging.
Hamas leader Khaled Mes-haal went to Cairo this week for another round of nego-tiations on disengagement with the Egyptians and with the secular Palestinian factions.
What is the Egyptian goal?
Cairo is trying to ensure a smooth transition of power once the Israelis withdraw. To this end, an internal political agreement between the various Palestinian factions must be reached, in addition to a real cease-fire.
Internal Palestinian accord, though, means allowing Hamas to become a full partner, along with the secular Palestinian factions, in ruling Gaza once the area is clear of Israelis.
And cease-fire means that both Hamas and the Al-Aksa Brigade, the terrorist wing of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat's Fatah organization, must lay down their arms.
Both goals are rather ambitious.
Cairo is also concerned over the growing power of Hamas - offspring of Egypt's radical Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian regime is well aware of the possibility that instability in Gaza can spill over to Egypt. It took President Hosni Mubarak several years of hard - and dirty - work to suppress Muslim militants in Egypt.
The Egyptian political system is itself at a political crossroads. A conference of the ruling National Democratic Party was scheduled for this week in Cairo to review a "working plan for 2005."
But Egyptian analysts predicted that the real outcome would be to bolster Gamal Mubarak, the 41-year-old son of ailing President Hosni Mubarak, as one of the leading contenders to succeed his father.
The younger Mubarak joined the party in the wake of its poor performance in the 2000 parliamentary elections. He was appointed chairman of a party policy-making com-mittee, among the strongest political bodies in Egypt, a move tailored especially to smooth his path to power.
The young Mubarak's supporters and the pro-government media are promoting him as a man committed to fundamental economic reform. The new Egyptian government, sworn in July 14 and said to reflect Gamal Mubarak's increasing power, is billed as reform-oriented - in contrast with its predecessor.
The Mubarak regime urgently needs to demonstrate reform, or at least create a political atmosphere of reform.
In recent months, Mubarak has come under constant personal attack - surprising for an autocracy such as Egypt. Abdul Khalim Kandil, editor of the opposition weekly Al-Arabi, recently wrote that Mubarak was the longest-ruling leader of Egypt since the 19th century.
He said that "the international role of Egypt has shrunk down to virtual disappearance."
A breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian front would do a lot of good for the Mubarak regime. For the time being, though, things don't look too promising.
|
|
