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June 25, 2004/Tamuz 6 5764, Vol. 56, No. 40
Will Labor join govt.?
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - A week ago, it seemed like a mere formality: At a time of his choosing, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would add the Labor Party to his tottering coalition, gaining the political muscle to withdraw Israeli troops and citizens from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank.
But stern opposition in the Likud Party, and rumblings of discontent in Labor, are complicating the scenario. Compounding the confusion, Sharon has been hinting that he has other coalition options. Labor leaders are intimating that they may withdraw the parliamentary safety net they promised Sharon - the pledge they made not to topple what has become a minority government on the understanding that they might soon join it. At least, they supported its main diplomatic initiative.
In both cases, the tough talk may be merely tactics, designed to influence the price in policies and portfolios that Labor can exact for joining the coalition. But such jockeying for position can assume a momentum of its own, and some pundits now say the projected alliance could fail to materialize.
In the balance could hang the fate of the Israeli withdrawal, a step that has garnered international support and that, ironically, originated in many ways in the Labor Party.
Sharon now has four coalition alternatives:
- Persist with his present minority coalition of 59 legislators in the 120-member Knesset and hope that the fractured opposition won't be able to agree on an alternative candidate for prime minister, which would be necessary to bring the government down without forcing new elections;
- Bring in two breakaway Knesset members, David Tal of the One Nation workers' party and Michael Nudelman of the right-wing National Union bloc, to secure a shaky 61-seat majority;
- Convince the five legislators from the fervently Orthodox United Torah Judaism bloc to support the government from outside the coalition; or
- Bring in Labor for a solid plurality of over 70 and, more importantly, a guaranteed majority in the Cabinet for settlement evacuation, which none of the other options provides.
Clearly, the Labor option is by far the most attractive for Sharon.
The other alternatives can keep Sharon's government afloat for several months, but only a national unity government with Labor could create the political ambiance to implement his controversial disengagement policy.
The snag is that many in Sharon's own Likud faction are adamantly opposed to the idea. Some still harbor hopes of stopping settlement evacuation, while others fear Labor's entry could lead to a modification of current government policies or cost them their Cabinet portfolios.
More than 20 Likud legislators are threatening to vote against any coalition with Labor. If they stick to their guns, Sharon will be hard-pressed to win a majority for a national unity government.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Report.
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