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April 16, 2004/Nisan 25 5764, Vol. 56, No. 30
Iraq unrest could hurt Israel
RON KAMPEAS
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
WASHINGTON - The conflagration in Iraq is likely to draw Israel and the United States closer for now, but a long-term war could riddle the alliance with political land mines.
The uncertainty flourishing in Iraq is reinforcing American reliance on its closest regional ally, but a failure in Iraq could lead to a range of dire outcomes for Israel, including a new U.S. isolationism that would embolden radicals in the region.
"The stakes are very high for Israel," said Steven Spiegel, a scholar with the Israel Policy Forum. "Should Iraq descend into chaos, instability, an anti-Israel government - that would be a serious blow for Israel."
In the short term, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had a clear advantage in his meeting with President Bush on April 14.
Bush is under fire from Democrats and some Repub-licans for a perceived failure to directly address the mounting casualties in Iraq, and needs whatever Middle East success he can achieve.
"It puts all the more importance on a successful meeting between Sharon and the president," said Edward Walker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs who travels frequently to the region as president of the Middle East Institute, a think tank.
Sharon was presenting Bush with his final plan for a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank. The subject of intense U.S.-Israeli nego-tiation for weeks, Sharon appears ready to extract major concessions.
Sharon said last week that he will evacuate only four West Bank settlements in the initial stages of the withdrawal. At the same time, Israeli officials suggested that Bush is ready to give assurances that Israel will not have to return to its border prior to the 1967 Six-Day War, known as the Green Line.
Last month, senior U.S. officials adamantly rejected any such recognition of Israel's claim to parts of the West Bank. Then, two weeks ago, U.S. officials said they were considering expressing sup-port for Israel's claim to three West Bank settlement blocs - provided that Sharon's withdrawal was far-reaching.
Now it appears Bush will tell Sharon that he supports some Israeli annexation in exchange even for a minimal West Bank withdrawal.
Sharon has said Israel will permanently claim five settlement blocs. In exchange, Bush was to get a letter committing Israel to the U.S.-led road map initiative, which guarantees Palestinian state-hood.
Bush does not want to totally alienate his Arab allies; he has sandwiched Sharon's visit between meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah II.
After meeting with Mubarak, Bush insisted any Gaza withdrawal should be in the context of the road map.
"The point is that the decision doesn't replace the path toward the establishment of a Palestinian state that will provide hope for the Pale-stinian people and provide continuity, and put the institutions in place necessary for a state to evolve," Bush said after meeting Mubarak on April 12 at the president's Crawford, Texas ranch.
Still, Iraq's deterioration leaves Bush vulnerable to Sharon's demands.
"Sharon is in a stronger position now that Bush is in trouble in Iraq," said Raymond Tanter, a Reagan-era member of the National Security Council now working with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The last thing Bush needs is trouble from Sharon in a political year."
However, the United States refused an Israeli request to come out explicitly against the Palestinian demand that refugees from the 1948 war and their descendants be allowed to return to Israel.
On the other hand, the United States has signed on wholeheartedly to Israel's West Bank security barrier after Israel adjusted the route to meet U.S. concerns.
Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, worried that the American public could become increasingly isolation-ist if Iraq becomes a quagmire.
"If in the long run there is a sense that Iraq has been a failure, it could affect the mood of the American people when it comes to the Middle East, with more and more voices like Pat Buchanan pushing neo-isolationism," he said.
Another casualty, Luft said, would be Bush administration plans to use Iraqi oil to counter the Saudis' long-standing hegemony over global energy policy.
"When you don't have security in Iraq, oil companies don't want to invest," he said. "America thought it would be less dependent on the Saudis; now it could be more depen-dent on the Saudis."
Perhaps the most fearsome outcome would be an increased radicalization of the region. Iran reportedly is backing Moqtada Al-Sadr, the Shi'ite cleric at the center of much of the anti-U.S. insurgency, and it would be emboldened by any dilution of U.S. influence and prestige.
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