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February 20, 2004/Shevat 28 5764, Vol. 56, No. 22
Hawks assembling against Sharon
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - The earthquake in Israel that measured 5 on the Richter scale last week is not the only ground shifting these days in the Jewish state.
In the wake of the recent announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that Israel soon could withdraw unilaterally from Jewish settlements from Gaza, the political landscape is shifting as well.
Since Sharon made his remarks two weeks ago, right-wing ministers have been busy mobilizing Cabinet colleagues in an effort to stop the prime minister, while the left-leaning Labor Party has been preparing to embrace Sharon.
Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the hawkish National Union, has written to 10 right-wing ministers urging them to come up with an alternative plan to Sharon's. The Likud's Uzi Landau is openly trying to drum up a majority against the prime minister in the Cabinet. And the National Union and the National Religious Party are threatening to bolt the coalition if Sharon goes ahead with his plan.
Some politicians are pre-dicting that Sharon's move will tear apart the government and bring early elections.
But Sharon is not backing down.
To take the wind out of the right wing's sails, the prime minister said he will take the matter directly to the people by calling a nationwide referendum on the Gaza withdrawal plan.
Sharon is hoping that a popular mandate for withdrawal will make it difficult for the right wingers in his own party to continue opposing him, thereby paving the way for a coalition with Labor.
The most active Likud opponent to Sharon's plan is Landau, a minister without portfolio, who says he is close to assembling a majority of 12 votes in the 23-member Cabinet against the Gaza withdrawal.
Lieberman attempted to build on Landau's work. He urged them to set up a joint forum to draft what he calls a "plan for the national camp."
Lieberman wrote that the government should come up with a plan of its own - and quickly. Lieberman pro-poses "fencing in the Palestinians" in several cantons, with Israel con-trolling passage between each one.
The question is: Will Likud Cabinet ministers agree to join the rebel forum, will Sharon vanquish the rebels or will Sharon dump the rebels for new left-wing coalition partners?
Benjamin Netanyahu's position is key.
Having staked his political future on the success of his stewardship of Israel's ailing economy, the finance minister and former prime minister is believed by some pundits to favor the plan that would help propel the economy out of its current slump. That would put Netanyahu in Sharon's camp of withdrawal from Gaza.
But, if Netanyahu believes the timing is ripe, he could well vote against Sharon's plan and take the lead of forces in the government opposing Sharon, thereby challenging the prime minister's leadership.
Netanyahu's decision could decide the fate of Sharon's government and the unilateral withdrawal plan.
Several Knesset members and expert observers believe the countdown to early elections has already begun.
One of them is Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, a former Sharon ally.
Rivlin told JTA that he does not believe Sharon will be able to keep his present coalition together for long or form a stable government to replace it. He also predicted Netanyahu would not make a leadership bid until new elections are called.
Rivlin's reasoning is simple: If Sharon gets his plan through the govern-ment, the right-wing parties will leave. Then, if Sharon replaces them with Labor, he won't be able to count on the support of the right-wingers in the Likud or on Labor's hard left.
That would make Sharon's government quite vulnerable.
Theoretically, Netanyahu then could make his move. By triggering a vote of "constructive no-confidence" in Sharon, Netanyahu could have an opportunity to take over as prime minister.
But it would be tough for Netanyahu to assemble and hold together a ruling coal-ition, according to Rivlin, because Netanyahu's coali-tion partners would have to be constituted exclusively of hawks and the fervently Orthodox parties.
The hawks would press for special allocations for settle-ments, and the fervently Orthodox would press for special funding for yeshivas. These financial demands would torpedo the tight fiscal policy upon which Netanyahu has staked his political reputation.
On the other hand, if Sharon fails to get his disen-gagement plan through, that in itself could be enough to spark elections.
Therefore, Rivlin believes, there is no escaping early elections, probably in 2005.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.
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