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January 23, 2004/Tevet 29 5764, Vol. 56, No. 18
Will Iowa absence hurt Lieberman?
MATTHEW E. BERGER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
WASHINGTON - Sen. Joseph Lieberman registered as little more than a ghost in Iowa, and his decision not to contest that state's caucuses may come back to haunt him in New Hampshire next week.
The Connecticut senator, considered the first viable Jewish candidate for presi-dent, decided in September to bypass Iowa's Democratic caucus and focus his attention on the Jan. 27 New Hampshire contest, followed by primaries a week later in South Carolina, Arizona, Oklahoma and Delaware.
The strategy has kept him largely out of the public eye in recent weeks and makes it critical that he do well in New Hampshire.
That job was hard enough before the Iowa caucuses, when Lieberman had to contend with strong New Hampshire polling by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Gen. Wesley Clark.
Now, with the win by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in Iowa and the strong second-place showing by Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), Lieberman goes into New Hampshire forced to ward off four strong contenders.
The surprise turnout in the Iowa caucuses - some precincts reported three times as much turnout as in 2000 - showed that Lieberman's assessment that he was not viable in the state might have been an oversimplification.
Edwards and Kerry also were not considered favorites in September, when Lieberman made his decision, but they ended up doing well and likely will retain momentum from Iowa heading into New Hampshire.
Lieberman, by contrast, has been an afterthought in media coverage the past few weeks as he campaigns in New Hampshire. Clark, who also opted out of Iowa, campaigned in South Carolina on Jan. 19 and appeared in New Hampshire toward the end of the day.
Polls show that Lieberman's support has been slipping in the Granite State. The latest American Re-search Group poll in New Hampshire, taken Jan. 16-18, had Dean leading the state with 28 percent of the vote, though slipping from a high of close to 40 percent.
Clark was second in the most recent poll, with 20 percent, followed by Kerry with 19 percent, Edwards with 8 percent and then Lieberman with 6 percent.
Lieberman received the endorsement Jan. 19 of New Hampshire's largest news-paper, the Manchester Union-Leader. Given the paper's tough conservative bent, however, it's questionable how much it will help Lieberman's primary campaign.
Lieberman's campaign said the choice to bypass Iowa was born of the most practical consideration: where to spend limited cash.
"At the time, we had to make some decisions about resource allocations and we had to allocate resources in places where we had a chance to win," said Dan Gerstein, a Lieberman campaign spokes-man.
Several candidates already had better campaign opera-tions and ties to voters in Iowa.
Lieberman officials also note that New Hampshire allows registered indepen-dents to vote in the Demo-cratic primary, which could aid Lieberman, who is considered among the most conservative of the Demo-cratic hopefuls.
Lieberman is running in part on his support for the U.S.-led war against Iraq last year. That's likely to play better in conservative New Hampshire than in Iowa, considered an anti-war state, said Ann Lewis, a former Clinton adviser.
Gerstein said the campaign has no second thoughts about the decision to skip Iowa, noting that Lieberman has had New Hampshire virtually to himself in recent weeks.
Because he has spent so much time in New Hampshire, a poor showing in the state likely would cripple Lieberman's presidential aspirations, much as the poor showing by Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) in Iowa - fourth place, with 11 percent - forced the former House majority leader out of the race.
No matter how he does in New Hampshire, Lieberman likely will stay in the race through the Feb. 3 contests. Lieberman campaign officials believe they have viable chances in Delaware, Okla-homa and South Carolina.
Arizona, which also goes to the polls Feb. 3, once was seen as one of Lieberman's best states, but campaign officials now are downplaying expectations there.
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