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January 2, 2004/Tevet 8 5764, Vol. 56, No. 15
Israel ponders Egyptian role
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Israeli leaders were heartened when, in late December, Egypt's foreign minister announced that he would come to Jerusalem for talks on promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace.
At the same time, however, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was moving in Cairo to galvanize international pressure on Israel to dismantle the nuclear weapons it is presumed to possess.
These seemingly contradictory thrusts in Egyptian policy highlight the deep ambivalence that has characterized Egypt's attitude to Israel since the two countries made peace in 1979.
On the one hand, Egypt has been keen to encourage other Arab countries and the Palestinians to follow its lead in making peace with Israel - partly to prove that it was right in pioneering accommodation with the Jewish state, partly to reinforce its position as a major power broker in the Middle East, and partly to satisfy Washington.
Some believe that Egypt still is undecided about whether it really wants peace with Israel. Others believe Egypt simply sees Israel as a major rival for regional hegemony.
In either case, while seeking a wider, regional rapprochement, Egypt also strives to weaken Israel and keep it isolated.
Egypt therefore makes peace overtures but keeps Israel at arm's length. It fashions a model of "cold peace" and implies that other Arab countries should adopt it. It carries out war games in which Israel is the named enemy, presses every possible button to pressure Israel to dismantle its nuclear stock-pile and often leads the diplomatic charge against Israel in international forums.
For more than 20 years, this ambivalent policy has not changed. Nor, from Egypt's perspective, should it, since the policy has paid rich dividends.
First and foremost, it paved the way for Egypt to build close relations with the United States, including a huge annual aid package that Egypt has used both to advance domestic goals and to undertake a massive military reconstruction effort over the past two decades.
It also has put Egypt in a position to help other Arabs, such as the Palestinians or Syrians, forge negotiations with Israel.
Egypt has been trying to play the "honest broker" over the past year, searching for ways to stop Israeli-Palestinian violence.
Since the Palestinian intifada was launched in September 2000, Egypt has worried about violent repercussions at home. Radical Islamic groups in Egypt could harness anti-Israel feeling to attack the Mubarak regime for not doing more to help the Palestin-ians, conceivably sparking violence directed at the regime itself.
While playing the "honest broker," however, Egypt also has been leading diplomatic moves against Israel in various international forums.
Egypt was active in getting the security fence issue referred to the international court at The Hague and worked closely with Syria to force a Security Council debate on ridding the Middle East of all weapons of mass destruction - a debate that is bound to focus primarily on Israel's presumed nuclear arsenal.
For years, the campaign against Israel's nuclear cap-ability has been a cornerstone of Egyptian foreign policy.
The duality of Egyptian policy leads to suspicion and anxiety on the Israeli side. One of Egypt's sharpest Israeli critics is Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, who asks why Egypt needs such a huge, modern army when it has no apparent enemies.
Steinitz notes that Egypt has used huge amounts of American money to trans-form its army into one of the strongest forces in the Middle East, that is has many of the same weapons systems as Israel and that it even has American instructors to teach the Egyptians how to use the weapons
Of all the Arab armies, Steinitz says, Egypt's is the one Israel has to take most seriously in the future.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.
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