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June 13, 2003/Sivan 13 5763, Vol. 55, No. 42
'Road map' lurches off track
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Just days after President Bush, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian Author-ity counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, outlined their visions of Israeli-Palestinian peace, Palestinian terrorists and Israeli soldiers again were attacking each other with lethal results. There was no sign of the cease-fire that the leaders agreed was needed for progress to be made on the "road map" to peace.
Indeed, the volatile sit-uation on the ground raises a fundamental question: Can three committed leaders impose a new reality based on the Aqaba vision, or are Israelis and Palestinians destined to be sucked into another vicious round of violence?
Israel has begun to fulfill its obligations under the road map by dismantling illegal West Bank settlement out-posts. Sharon has had to face down fierce criticism from his right wing in the process.
As for the Palestinians, Abbas so far hasn't been able to deliver even a brief cease-fire. Israeli officials see three main reasons for this: Hamas, the Fatah movement's Tanzim militia and Yasser Arafat.
To bring to heel the unruly armed gangs of the Tanzim, Sharon is allowing the imprisoned Marwan Bar-ghouti, who has more clout with the Tanzim than anyone else, to work for a cease-fire from his jail cell.
Sharon seems determined to press ahead with the "Aqaba process" despite the shooting. Before, Sharon had demanded a week of absolute quiet on the Palestinian side as a condition for talks. But given the new degree of American involvement, pressure and oversight, Sharon wants to be seen as giving Abbas every chance to lead the Palestinians out of the cycle of violence.
The June 8 attack on an Israel Defense Force base near the Erez Checkpoint, in which four Israeli soldiers were killed, posed an acute dilemma for Sharon. If he hit back hard, he would weaken Abbas and risk American censure.
If he didn't, Hamas and other rejectionist forces might take heart and step up their attacks.
Sharon decided not to wait until things on the ground got worse, and he signaled to Hamas that Israel's hands are not tied by the American-led peace effort. According to Israeli officials, The attempted assassination June 10 of Abdel Aziz Rantissi, a leading Hamas official, was meant to convey a clear message: That Israel will not stand for a situation in which Hamas tries to jack up its price for a cease-fire by continuing to kill Israelis.
The attack failed, killing two Palestinians but only wounding Rantissi.
June 11 Hamas retailiated with a bus bombing that killed at least 16 and wounded more than 90.
Clearly, Sharon hopes that as long as he keeps his side of the initial road map bargain, the Americans will allow him a free hand in fighting the terrorism that President Bush defines as evil, even if it means a delay in achieving a cease-fire.
As for Abbas, Bush and Sharon both are convinced of his genuine commitment to the peace process, but they are less sure of his ability to deliver.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.
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