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April 18, 2003/Nisan 16 5763, Vol. 55, No. 34
Bush agenda is crowded
Compounded by Syrian threat and Israeli-Palestinian 'road map'
MATTHEW E. BERGER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
For months, analysts and pundits have wondered what would be the next item on the Bush administration agenda after war in Iraq.
Suddenly, it seems the White House is tackling most of its agenda items at once.
In the hours after Iraq's major cities fell last week, U.S. attention began shifting to the Middle East's numerous other trouble spots.
Among the priorities is the presentation of the "road map" toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, rebuilding Iraq and, unexpectedly, pressuring Syria to change its belligerent policies.
All have major implications for Israel.
It long was expected that the administration would focus on rebuilding Iraq and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict immediately after the war.
But the pressure on Syria seemingly came out of nowhere last week.
Bush administration officials began blasting Syria for sending shipments of military supplies to Iraq, harboring terrorist organizations and alleged Iraqi war criminals and allowing men to infiltrate Iraq to fight U.S. forces.
"In recent days, the Syrians have been shipping killers into Iraq to try to kill Americans," Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told Congress on April 10.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon joined the chorus, reviving allegations he made last winter that Iraq had moved military equipment to Syria, either to hide it from the United States or to transfer the equipment to Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based terrorist organ-ization that is supported by the Syrian and Iranian governments.
Syrian officials reportedly have said they want to turn Iraq into "America's Lebanon," a reference to the insurgency that Syrian-supported guerrillas waged for years against Israeli troops occupying southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials were in Washington for talks with administration officials on modifying the road map.
A day after meeting with Sharon's chief of staff, Dov Weisglass, Secretary of State Colin Powell said April 18 that the "finalized" road map would be released to the parties after the cabinet of new Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is confirmed.
The current confluence of events likely will mean increased Israeli engagement with the United States. Israel will try to echo Washington's warnings to Syria, while pressing the White House not to push the road map faster than Israel is willing to go.
Israel has much to gain from increased pressure on Damascus. Syria essentially controls Israel's northern neighbor, Lebanon, and harbors and supports terrorist organ-izations such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.
U.S.-led pressure on Syria is likely to be more productive than anything Israel could bring to bear on its own.
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Syrian government is a mix of ideologues and realists - and that opportunities for change exist.
"The question ultimately becomes, 'Can you build a coalition inside Syria for Syria to reorient the way it deals with the world?' " he said.
Among the possible carrots the United States can use is the drafting of a road map for Syria to get off the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism; the creation of new economic opportunities for Syria; giving Syria a role in regional discussions; and inviting them to participate in rebuilding Iraq.
It's unclear how vocal U.S. Jewish organizations will be about Syria. They worked hard over the past year to mute their support for war against Iraq, fearing that a prominent stance would lead to accusations that the war was being fought on Israel's behalf - accusations that were leveled anyway.
Jewish leaders may be hesitant to speak out on the Syrian track for the same reasons - but also because their voices may not be needed.
"There may be a feeling that if this is going to be debated and perceived as a U.S. issue, why engage it from a parochial perspective of a pro-Israel group pushing its agenda?" one Jewish leader said. "Why pile on?"
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