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March 28, 2003/Adar2 24 5763, Vol. 55, No. 31
Stakes high for Israel
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
The war in Iraq may not be Israel's war - as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon likes to say - but the stakes for Israel could hardly be higher.
If the United States wins a convincing victory, it could assure Israel's place in a more stable Middle East for years to come. If it does not, Israel could find itself the prime target of emboldened Middle Eastern radicals and face far greater threats to its existence than it does today.
An overwhelming American victory and the establishment of a pro-Western regime would remove a nonconventional - and possibly nuclear - threat to Israel from a capricious rogue regime. Moreover, a pro-Western regime in Baghdad would finally lay to rest one of Israel's worst nightmares: a united "Eastern Front" consisting of Iraq, Syria and Jordan, with thousands of tanks ready to bear down on Israel from Jordanian territory.
A second major strategic benefit for Israel would be an American presence opposite Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently that the United States had "suddenly" discovered that "Iran is much further along, with a far more robust nuclear weapons development program, than anyone said it had."
A weakened Iraq, an American presence in the Persian Gulf and a credible American threat to disarm Iran might slow down the Iranian nuclear program.
American success in Iraq also might weaken the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis, which threatens Israel from the north. Last year the Iranians delivered over 700 rockets to the fundamentalist Shi'ite militia through Syria.
The perception of American power and readiness to use it could lead Iran to rethink its ties with Hezbollah. It might also persuade Syria, not wanting to be held accountable for Hezbollah attacks on Israel, to rein in the organization.
Some Israeli analysts, including Sharon's national security adviser, Ephraim Halevy, say the ripple effect of American success even could lead to an Israel-Lebanon peace treaty, and possibly later to an accommodation with Syria.
Last but not least, American victory in Iraq could impact favorably on the Palestinian front. If Saddam is toppled and replaced by a less belligerent and more pragmatic regime, that could serve as a model for change among the Palestinians.
There are two possible negative outcomes. One is that the American campaign in Iraq proves ineffectual and Saddam survives with his regime intact. The second, less drastic possibility is if fierce fighting leaves many American casualties, emboldening Arab radicals to think that it is possible to stand up to Western might - and making the United States far more wary of future engagements in the Middle East.
In either case, the prognosis for Israel would be dire. If Saddam survives, he could go nuclear a few years down the road, and might target Israel in revenge for what he calls the "American-Zionist conspiracy" against him.
Secondly, resurrection of the "Eastern Front" would become a theoretical option, with a strong Iraq exerting pressure on Jordan to break its ties with Israel.
U.S. failure in Iraq also would encourage Iran to ignore American pressure about its nuclear program and to produce nuclear weapons as soon as possible.
An American setback in Iraq would encourage radical terrorists throughout the world, and especially in the Middle East, to step up their campaigns - and Israel would be a prime target.
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