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March 21, 2003/Adar2 17 5763, Vol. 55, No. 30
'Road map' equals roadblock for Israel and U.S.
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - As soon as the dust settles in Baghdad, President George Bush and his good friend, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, could be heading for a showdown.
The looming bone of contention is the "road map" toward Israeli-Palestinian peace prepared by the diplomatic quartet of the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia.
Bush wants to use the road map to break the current impasse between Israel and the Palestinians, but Sharon fears the plan may offer the Palestinians rewards without ensuring real change in their approach to Israel.
Israeli officials make light of the possible clash, giving many reasons why they think it won't happen. But they could be in for a surprise: After victory in Iraq, Bush may want to show the international community that he's serious about imposing a Pax Americana on the Middle East as a whole.
Bush has underlined his commitment to the road map in recent weeks. In a Feb. 26 speech to the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, he declared that "it is the commitment of our government - and my personal commitment - to implement the road map."
As soon as a Palestinian prime minister with real authority is confirmed in office, he said, the United States would present the road map to both Israel and the Palestinians.
Israeli officials suggest Bush's comments were designed to help embattled European allies and put pressure on the Palestinian leadership, and in no way signaled a coming clash with Israel.
They argue that Bush wanted primarily to help British Prime Minister Tony Blair deflect domestic criticism of his support for war against Iraq. According to this logic, presenting the road map would show Blair's opponents that the campaign against Iraq is not directed against the Arabs per se, but was a first step in a wider plan to stabilize the region.
Bush, the officials continue, also wanted to force Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat to grant extensive powers to his prime minister-designate, Mahmoud Abbas, by making it clear that he would present the road map only after a prime minister "with real authority" was appointed.
Israel's objections to the plan are numerous and profound.
The road map sets as its final goal an "independent Palestinian state" in three years. But Israel wants it to be crystal clear that the state will have limited sovereignty. It will be demilitarized and barred from making military alliances.
Israel also insists that each step on the way to statehood be completed to its satisfaction before the next step starts.
The Israelis further argue that the notions of performance-based benchmarks and strict timetables are mutually exclusive. If the Palestinians know they will achieve statehood in three years come what may, what incentive do they have to carry out reforms that ostensibly are conditions for receiving statehood?
They also say:
- It is absurd to demand a parallel Israeli renunciation of violence and incitement, as if Israel's war against terror is on the same moral footing as the terror itself.
- Israel have a say on whether the Palestinians have completed security-related steps such as the collection of illegal weapons.
The Americans are aware of the Israeli objections - but, in the main, reject them.
Still, Israeli officials say the breach between the United States and Europe over Iraq might widen after the war.
They hope a victorious United States will squeeze out the other members of the Quartet and deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict primarily on its own.
But some Israeli analysts say it's more likely that after the war in Iraq, America will do its best to mend fences with Europe.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.
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