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November 22, 2002/Kislev 17 5763, Vol. 55, No. 13
Palestinian talks yield no cease-fire
GIL SEDAN
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Supposed truce talks between Hamas and Fatah representatives in Cairo must leave some Israelis wondering what Palestinians mean when they talk about a cease-fire.
According to early reports, Fatah planned to press Hamas to stop carrying out terrorist attacks.
Later reports said the talks were aimed at limiting attacks to just the West Bank and Gaza Strip, not inside Israel proper.
Then it was reported that any cease-fire would last only for three months, to avoid helping right-wing politicians before Israel's Jan. 28 elections.
Since the meetings ended without any cease-fire declaration - and with, instead, an agreement to cooperate in the fight against Israel - the idea that a truce was even on the agenda seems questionable.
Yet it was a gunman from Fatah's own Al-Aksa Brigade who crossed into Israel proper and killed five civilians, including two children, in Kibbutz Metzer on Nov. 10, while the Cairo talks were still under way.
Then, on Nov. 15, days after the Cairo talks ended, Islamic Jihad terrorists attacked a group of settlers returning from Sabbath prayers in Hebron.
When Israeli troops and other security personnel responded to the gunfire, the Palestinians ambushed them, killing 12. Another 14 Israelis were wounded.
That brought the tally of Israeli casualties from the Palestinian intifada to 668 dead and 4,755 wounded.
Moderates in the Palestinian camp are well aware that terrorist escalation is likely to strengthen the right in Israel's elections. In fact, just hours before the Hebron attack, Sari Nusseibeh, the top PLO official for Jerusalem, published an article on the front page of the Al-Quds newspaper urging the Palestinians to act more moderately in order to strengthen the Israeli left.
The Hebron ambush symbolizes the general situation of near-anarchy in the Palestinian territories. The Israel Defense Force maintains a strong military presence, but does not have direct control over the Palestinian population.
Many believe that the Palestinian Authority has lost control over the territories, whether because it's unable to master the situation or because it prefers chaos that allows terrorism to flourish while giving the Palestinian government the ability to deny responsibility.
In that situation, many Israeli officials believe that even if the Palestinians do decide on a cease-fire, it will be nearly impossible to enforce. While Hamas and Islamic Jihad maintain tight control over their military cadres, Fatah - P.A. President Yasser Arafat's mainstream movement - has become a collection of small gangs that often do not respect any central authority.
The Hebron attack also illustrates the conundrum facing Israeli decision-makers. Israel repeatedly is pressed to ease up on the Palestinians, both to improve the lot of the general population and to give Palestinian officials an incentive to work toward moderation. Yet the terror groups invariably take advantage of any easing of restrictions to launch new attacks.
The IDF stopped patrolling most Palestinian areas of Hebron on Oct. 25 as part of a plan promoted by then-Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer. Under the plan, Israeli troops would pull out of West Bank areas where relative quiet prevailed, giving the Palestinian Authority a chance to prove that it could maintain order.
It now turns out that the Islamic Jihad cell that carried out the attack had returned to Hebron after Israeli troops departed.
Islamic Jihad is a much smaller organization than Hamas in terms of organization, membership, military potential and popular backing. Islamic Jihad does not receive its orders from Cairo, Gaza or Ramallah; its headquarters are in Damascus and it operates with Syrian backing and Iranian military and financial support.
The Damascus operation is run by Ramadan Shalah. Locally, the group's power base is in Gaza, and its leaders are well-known: Sheikh Abdullah Shami is its religious leader, Nafez Azzam and Moham-mad Hindi its political figures.
However, the group's terrorist network is highly clandestine and smaller than those of Hamas and Fatah.
That is a disadvantage in terms of popular support, but allows the group to more easily elude Israeli military thrusts.
This week, Syria reportedly rejected a call from the United States to close the Damascus offices of Islamic Jihad. Israel's Itim news agency reported that the message was delivered Nov. 18 by the U.S. ambassador in Damascus following a directive from the White House. The United States issued the call after Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the Nov. 15 attack in Hebron in which gunmen killed 12 Israelis.
There still are occasional confrontations between Fatah and the Islamic groups. But with the outbreak of the intifada more than two years ago, Fatah has cooperated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a number of terrorist attacks.
With no peace talks under way, Arafat might be too weak to oppose the Islamist organizations even if he wanted to. Thus he gave the green light for the Cairo talks - though many analysts believe he effectively torpedoed them by refusing to send his top aides.
Still, the talks were important because they marked the first time that delegations from Hamas and Fatah met to coordinate their activities since a November 1995 agreement, which was also hammered down in Cairo.
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