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November 15, 2002/Kislev 10 5763, Vol. 55, No. 12
Lost data delays population report
JOE BERKOFSKY
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
NEW YORK - Much-anticipated parts of the National Jewish Population Survey will not be released as expected next week because some of the data has been lost.
The United Jewish Communities, which is funding the $6 million study, is canceling all events about the 2000-01 NJPS at the Philadelphia gathering of its General Assembly, which begins Nov. 20.
The UJC, the umbrella of the North American federation system, also is launching an independent investigation into the lost data, JTA has learned.
"It is true we are delaying the release of the study," Stephen Hoffman, UJC's president and chief executive officer, told JTA. "There have been some questions raised that I don't believe we have adequate time to get answers to."
The revelations could cast doubt on the entire NJPS, the most extensive and costliest demographic study ever conducted of the American Jewish community. The lost data apparently concerned methodological details about who was surveyed, rather than their responses to survey questions.
"Some people with serious reputations believe the study is sound and it could have gone forward and will stand up to the test of time," Hoffman said.
"That could be the case - but I didn't feel comfortable with these questions to go forward" with releasing further NJPS data next week as planned, Hoffman said.
Last month the UJC released initial findings from the NJPS, showing the American Jewish population declined 5 percent to 5.2 million since the last study in 1990, and that birth rates were dropping and the community was aging.
Hoffman said that had he known of the missing data before the release of that information, he would not have approved the release of those initial conclusions.
"If we knew then what we know today, I'm sure we would not have released it," he said.
"There may be aspects of it" that are inaccurate, he said, referring to the initial data released.
Hoffman said he only learned of the missing data Nov. 12, one week before the information from the NJPS about Jewish identity and intermarriage was due to be released at the annual UJC gathering, which brings together much of the organized American Jewish world.
"It would be irresponsible to go ahead and release the study while these questions are still unresolved," Hoffman said.
At the heart of the mystery was that Hoffman only learned this week that Roper Audits & Surveys Worldwide, the firm conducting research for the NJPS, lost some data two years ago during initial telephone calls.
Meanwhile, "other issues like that have been coming up in recent days," he added, though he declined to elaborate.
One source familiar with the NJPS said the missing data concerned lists of those people telephoned for the survey, their phone numbers and how often they were called. Two-thirds of that data was lost, according to the source.
But the source maintained that while this information was important in determining the accuracy of the survey's methodology, he did not think that it would undermine the ultimate conclusions, specifically those relating to Jews and Jewish identity.
Hoffman said the UJC's director of research for NJPS, Jim Schwartz, "was aware" of the missing data at some earlier point but he hadn't spoken directly with Schwartz yet about the matter.
"It would be unfair to jump to conclusions about anybody's particular role," he said. "I'm not casting any aspersions at the moment."
Schwartz could not be reached for comment for this story.
The UJC will secure "an outsider" who is "totally objective" to do an investigation into the missing information, Hoffman said.
A spokeswoman for Roper, June Wallach, said the company would have no comment at this time.
Hoffman said he had no idea whether the UJC would take action against Roper, which apparently lost the information from its computer system.
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