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October 4, 2002/Tishri 28 5763, Vol. 55, No. 6
Jewish population debate continues
DEBRA NUSSBAUM COHEN
Jewish Week
On the eve of a much-anticipated national Jewish population survey, a leading demographer has found that there are 18 percent more Jews in America than earlier reports have stated.
In a new national survey released last week, Gary Tobin, president of the San Francisco-based Institute for Jewish Community Research, reveals that 6.7 million Americans say that Judaism is their primary religious or ethnic identification. That is significantly more than the 5.5 million people in the "core Jews" category reported by the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey.
Tobin's study found an additional 2.5 million respondents who he terms "Jewishly connected non-Jews." Those people said, among other things, said that they practice Judaism as a secondary religion; or that their spouse or other household member is Jewish; or that they have one Jewish parent but do not themselves identify as Jews; or that they simply feel "Jewish in their hearts," Tobin said.
That totals 9.2 million people - 1 million more Jews and non-Jews who live with Jews than were found by the 1990 NJPS.
In addition, Tobin's study estimates that another 4.1 million Americans report having some Jewish blood, though they are not Jewish themselves, because they have a Jewish grandparent or other relative (besides a parent).
That population was not measured on the 1990 NJPS.
That brings the total to 13.3 million Americans who are linked in some way to Judaism and the Jewish people, according to Tobin, who says that it is a far higher number than anyone has previously estimated.
More than the numbers themselves, Tobin's survey, which is likely to spark much controversy, sets the stage for a debate over who should be counted as a Jew; the community's perception of itself as either withering or thriving; and the crucial communal policy and funding decisions made by Jewish organizations and private foundations that will flow from the demographic data.
Coming as it does just before the National Jewish Population Study 2000 findings are slated to be unveiled Oct. 8 by the United Jewish Communities, Tobin's survey is being seen as a major salvo in the "inreach/outreach" debate over the best way to ensure Jewish continuity.
As a result of the NJPS in 1990, for example, "inreach" and "outreach" programs designed to intensify levels of Jewish learning and behavior have proliferated. Inreach proponents believe the best way to ensure continuity is to focus on "core" Jews; outreach proponents believe reaching out to those on the margins is a more effective strategy.
Tobin attributes the discrepancy in his numbers to his use of a "more sensitive" questionnaire than that used by the NJPS; the fact that he conducted preliminary tests of screening questions; and weighted the findings to account for groups - Russian immigrants, Israelis and Orthodox Jews - whose members frequently refuse to disclose their Jewishness to telephone interviewers.
Tobin's survey was carried out by the Washington, D.C.-based polling company Market Facts. More than 10,000 people were interviewed through random phone number dialing between July 2001 and June 2002, and 250 households expressed some relationship to Judaism. The NJPS 2000 study has a sampling of 4,500 households.
Another key difference in Tobin's method of counting is that "We don't exclude people who are sociologically and psychologically Jewish but aren't religiously Jewish."
Critics of the survey weren't surprised by his numbers.
Given intermarriage rates and the deep level of Jewish integration into all parts of American society, it's no surprise that "there are an awful lot of people intimately linked with Jews who may even see themselves as Jewish," said Steve Bayme, director of Contemporary Jewish Life at the American Jewish Committee.
Unlike the UJC studies, Tobin's population survey does not measure intermarriage or other critical issues related to Jewish behavior, but simply assessed the size of the community.
This article was reprinted with the permission of the Jewish Week of New York.
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