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August 23, 2002/Elul 15 5762, Vol. 54, No. 49
Polls: Support for Israel may be falling
JOE BERKOFSKY
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
NEW YORK - Americans tired of Mideast violence increasingly blame Israel and the Palestinians equally and dismiss each side's cause as "hopeless," according to a series of new polls of American views of the conflict.
Overall, 42 percent of Americans support Israel, while only 10 percent support the Palestinians.
Yet about the same amount surveyed say they remain neutral in the conflict - favoring neither side or backing both equally - a marked erosion of longstanding support for Israel.
In addition, a majority want the Bush administration to pressure both Israel and the Palestinians to negotiate, and they overwhelmingly support a two-state solution to the Mideast conflict - even if it includes the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees to Israel.
These assessments arise from a series of surveys last month that show public support for Israel slipping from 50 percent less than a year ago, turning instead to apathy or disgust with violence by both sides.
"The moral edge that Israel has always enjoyed is that it has always appeared strongly desirous of peace and generally willing to accept the partition of the land of Israel," said Steven Cohen, professor at the Melton Centre at Hebrew University. "Insofar as we don't look like we are committed to peace or interested in a two-state solution, we suffer in the eyes of public opinion."
In the surveys, taken by prominent Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg and funded by several Jewish organizations and private donors, many Americans said the conflict seems "hopeless." They characterize it as a "holy war" that has endured for thousands of years and could last centuries more without peace.
The mid-July surveys measure attitudes about Israel and the Palestinians among five different groups: "opinion elites," general voters, Jews, African Americans and college students.
While the full results are being closely guarded, JTA secured memos by Greenberg and Republican strategist Frank Luntz summarizing the findings and outlining a communications strategy meant to win back American hearts and minds for Israel.
While backing for Israel stands at 42 percent and support for the Palestinians at just 10 percent, the other half of respondents have pulled away from the conflict, maintaining that they support both sides equally or neither side at all.
Opinion leaders - high-income, highly educated, media-savvy people are evenly split between those who support both sides or neither side, while most African Americans, college students and registered voters say they support neither side.
When pressed, opinion leaders - whom the strategists consider the most important group, because of their influence - say they have moved from supporting Israel toward sympathizing with the Palestinians, from 14 percent to 28 percent, in recent months, according to Greenberg's memo.
Though these opinion elites call Israel a key U.S. ally, they also believe that Israel is blocking efforts toward peace, and want the United States to pressure Israel to negotiate a peace deal.
Asked whether Israel or the Palestinians are "morally right" in the conflict, 54 percent of opinion leaders said "both" or "neither," while only 34 percent chose Israel.
Asked where their sympathies lie, 42 percent of opinion leaders did not choose any side, while 41 percent said Israel.
Perhaps more troubling, African Americans, college students and registered voters tend to be more negative about Israel. Only 37 percent support U.S. military intervention if Israel is attacked, compared to 65 percent among opinion leaders.
Just less than 50 percent of respondents say they think Israel wants peace. Only 34 percent call Israel morally right and just 27 percent see Israel as the victim in the battle.
"We cannot take much satisfaction in the fact that the Palestinians score even lower on these key measures," Greenberg notes in his memo.
Palestinian propaganda, together with news reporting that suggests a moral equivalence between the sides, may have failed in building support for the Palestinians, but it has undermined support for Israel, the study suggests.
While the opinion leaders believe the Palestinians are mainly responsible for Mideast violence, more than 40 percent see Israel as an obstacle to peace, 36 percent say Israel is acting like terrorists itself, and half say Israel is illegally occupying Palestinian land.
Among the other groups, the perception is worse. The notion that Israel has become like the Palestinian terrorists rises to 40 percent among African Americans, 45 percent among college students and 47 percent among Washington-area opinion leaders.
Ambivalence cuts across party lines as well. Only 36 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of moderate Republicans and 35 percent of independents back Israel in the conflict.
Israel's strongest support comes from conservative Republicans, 68 percent of whom support Israel. The pollsters say this group backs Israel largely because it supports President Bush's anti-terror stance and because of its fundamentalist Christian beliefs.
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