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July 26, 2002/Av 17 5762, Vol. 54, No. 45
From bleak soil, peace proposals grow
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - The old aphorism that things must get worse before they get better fits today's Israeli-Palestinian conflict like a glove.
Twenty-two months of armed conflict have taken their toll on both sides. Beyond the dead and wounded, economic suffering has reached new heights.
As the Israeli economy sinks into deeper recession, and life for the Palestinians under curfews and closure becomes unbearable, both sides are looking for a way out. The past few weeks have seen more creative thinking, open meetings, back channels and international involvement than at any time in the past two years.
Those efforts might be derailed, at least temporarily, by Israel's airstrike in Gaza July 23, which killed Hamas military leader Salah Shehada and at least 15 civilians.
Some Israeli analysts say the airstrike and the reoccupation itself have helped restore Palestinian respect for Israeli power. That, they argue, could evoke more conciliatory and creative Palestinian approaches that may spur the diplomatic process forward.
For Israel, three issues are key: a cease-fire, reform of the Palestinian armed forces and a Palestinian decision-making process that bypasses Arafat.
For the Palestinians, the immediate goals are an Israeli withdrawal from West Bank cities and alleviation of the population's day-to-day hardships.
Various formulas are being proposed to meet those goals.
In talks this month with Palestinian leaders other than Arafat, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has been trying to find creative solutions for all these problems.
On withdrawal, Peres proposes a "Judea First" option, under which the IDF would withdraw from cities in the southern West Bank such as Jericho, Hebron and Bethlehem. If those places remain quiet, the IDF would start pulling out of northern cities like Jenin, Nablus and Ramallah.
Peres has hinted that total withdrawal would be contingent on a clear Palestinian blueprint for new elections. The voting would take place as soon as Israel completes its withdrawal, and the outcome would have to guarantee that Arafat is neutralized.
At the same time, E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana has been trying to arrange a credible cease-fire. He is urging Arafat's own Fatah movement, with its Tanzim militia, to publish a unilateral cease-fire call in both the New York Times and the Arabic press.
In Solana's vision, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would then fall in line and relatively moderate Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia would come out in support of the ceasefire. Israel would then start withdrawing from Palestinian cities, along the lines of the Peres formula.
Peres's Palestinian interlocutors on security and finance, P.A. Interior Minister Gen. Abdel Razak Yehiyeh and Finance Minister Salim Fayed, have presented plans of their own.
Yehiyeh put forward a more ambitious, longer-term security proposal: The IDF withdraws to the positions it held before the intifada erupted in September 2000. Palestinian forces move in and take over security responsibility.
Under Yehiyeh's plan, Israel and the Palestinians then renew security cooperation and the Palestinians carry out Israel's major security demands: reducing the number of different armed forces from over a dozen to three under one unified command; confiscating illegal weapons; and ending incitement against Israel.
Fayed proposes a 100-day plan for thorough reform of P.A. financial practices. To create absolute transparency, he is proposing that all Palestinian funding go through just one bank, and that he sign all checks personally.
Given the situation on the ground, such solutions might seem light years away right now. But, perhaps, as the old aphorism suggests, things will start moving precisely because the situation is so bad.
Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Report.
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