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March 29, 2002/Nisan 16 5762, Vol. 54, No. 28
Can Arafat control his military factions?
GIL SEDAN
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Suppose for a second that Israel strikes a cease-fire deal with Yasser Arafat: Would the Palestinian Authority president be able to deliver?
Arafat himself may not know for sure, as the extent of control he retains over the many military factions he has created or allowed to flourish in his territory is unclear.
On paper, the Palestinian Authority is made up of eight major security organizations, each with a specific agenda.
In practice, however, many of the groups compete with each other, making it difficult to maintain a clear military hierarchy and discipline. Complicating the scene further is the fact that there are at least four nonofficial organizations actively involved in intifada terrorism, and it is unclear to what extent they respond to Arafat's orders or signals.
They are the Izz a-Din al-Kassam Brigades, the military wing of the Muslim fundamentalist Hamas organization; the fundamentalist group Islamic Jihad; the secular Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a prominent faction in Arafat's PLO; and the Tanzim, a militia of Arafat's Fatah movement that in recent months has been particularly active in terrorism both in the West Bank and Israel proper.
A militia of some 10,000 to 40,000 Fatah supporters, the Tanzim usually recognized the authority of the Palestinian Authority in the past. In the Gaza Strip, the group was led by Ahmad Hils, but its more prominent West Bank leader was Marwan Barghouti, a veteran of Israeli prisons but also a supporter of the Oslo peace process.
From a marginal local activist in Ramallah, he has become a national leader, a militant who time and again has vowed loyalty to Arafat - but also has made it clear that he will not hesitate to carry on attacking Israelis even if Arafat orders him not to.
Barghouti's influence has expanded to such an extent that some Israeli analysts believe that, sooner or later, Israel might prefer to negotiate with him rather than with Arafat.
Barghouti has reached his lofty status through violence. Some of the bloodiest recent attacks have been carried out by the Al-Aksa Brigades, a group created during the early stages of the intifada by militant Tanzim elements.
The brigades have overshadowed another Fatah-linked militia known as the Pioneers of the Popular Army - The Brigades of Return.
The P.A. leadership occasionally has called on Palestinians to refrain from attacks on civilians inside Israel proper - arguing that they hurt the Palestinians' international image - and to concentrate instead on attacks in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Yet the Al-Aksa Brigades have continued to engage in terror on both sides of the 1967 border. In fact, the radical Muslim organizations no longer have a monopoly on suicide bombing, as secular Al-Aksa Brigade terrorists also have adopted this mode of fighting.
While many elements of the official Palestinian bodies have planned or participated in terror attacks, the forces have not been deployed against Israel in a coordinated military manner during the intifada, a development that Israeli officials fear.
Consistent with Arafat's tactics during his 35-year leadership of the PLO, he has placed the various security organizations in competition with each other, and they are riddled with personal rivalries.
Despite their rivalries, the majority of the security bodies remain loyal to Arafat.
The big question mark remains Barghouti. Some Israeli security experts now believe that Barghouti's refusal to heed the limits set by Arafat has positioned him as the main challenger to Arafat's leadership. Despite the fact that Barghouti's hands are stained with Israeli blood, many Israelis see him as a potential negotiating partner - primarily because they consider the Tanzim "the least of all evils'' if Arafat leaves the scene.
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