|
|
March 15, 2002/Nisan2, 5762, Vol. 54, No. 26
U.S., Israel share focus
DAVID MAKOVSKY
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
The twin trips of Vice President Dick Cheney and peace envoy Anthony Zinni to the Middle East this week are seemingly unrelated, but in fact, they fit together.
President Bush dispatched his vice president to demonstrate resolve in combating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, a resolve that could include military action against Baghdad.
He wanted Cheney to consult with a variety of Arab countries, most prominently Saudi Arabia, amid hope that he can elicit their cooperation in this effort.
The Bush administration views Iraq as a linchpin for its regional strategy, given Iraq's proven record for troublemaking.
If the United States were successful in installing a friendlier regime in a country that has huge amounts of oil reserves, some figures in the Bush administration believe, other Arab oil states would lose their ability to blackmail the United States.
The ability to achieve these objectives remains very uncertain, but they could have a significant impact on the future prospects for Israeli-Arab peace.
A U.S. war against Iraq is not inevitable, but it seems increasingly likely, even though it is much more difficult to launch a change in regime than to expel Iraq from Kuwait, as President Bush's father did.
Even if Saddam agrees to acquiesce on arms inspections, in keeping with U.N. resolutions, Bush administration officials believe such acquiescence would mean little more than foot-dragging and a cat-and-mouse exercise, as has happened so often in the past.
If the United States does take action, it would be launching a preventive rather than a traditional retaliatory war.
In his mission, Cheney is seeking not only Arab political cover for a move against Iraq, but also options for any military action.
There is a belief in Washington that the Saudis may support U.S. actions against Iraq if the United States finishes the job this time. Any halfway measures that leave Saddam in power would leave Riyadh feeling politically exposed for supporting the United States.
Now enter the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Bush administration fears that Cheney's mission could be marred if, instead of the focus being Iraq, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah and other Arab leaders start launching tirades about how it is hard to support the United States in confronting Iraq while pan-Arab satellite Al-Jazeera television broadcasts images of Israelis killing Palestinians during the current violence.
Bush, fearing that Arab complaints on this issue would undercut the focus on Iraq, decided to dispatch Zinni to the region amid hopes that he could help tamp down the violence.
This marks a change for the Bush administration, which over the last two months offered no criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's handling of the current crisis.
The success of the Cheney mission is no less important to Israel than it is to the United States, given that Saddam has always been a leading Arab rejectionist of Israel.
The case could be made that there is a greater strategic convergence between the United States and Israel today than in any other moment of the history of the Jewish state.
In singling out Iraq and Iran as part of an "axis of evil'' against the United States, Bush, in his State of the Union speech, was pointing out the two biggest threats to Israel's existence as well.
Israel understands the importance of maintaining strategic convergence with the United States, and thus the idea of sending Zinni to ease the Cheney mission was welcomed in Jerusalem.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ultimately dropped the precondition for seven days of quiet as a prerequisite for a cease-fire. And when the Palestinian Authority arrested the last of the suspected killers of Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze'evi, Sharon announced that Arafat would have more freedom of movement.
The U.S. focus on the Saudis may also lead Zinni to focus on a second package deal, enabling Arafat to attend the Arab summit in Beirut at the end of the month in return for a meaningful cease-fire with Israel.
It is at that summit where Arab countries are expected to focus on a Saudi proposal for Arab diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from lands it conquered in the 1967 Six-Day War.
The United States is under no illusion that a Saudi plan promising Arab world 'normalization' with Israel in return for withdrawal from the territories will produce peace.
There is an understanding in Washington that the core problem is Palestinian attitudes toward Israel, and a recognition that any peace deal must make both parties feel safer and less vulnerable than today.
Some inside and outside the Bush administration believe the only hope for halting violence will require both a mechanism for compliance - and defined consequences for the Palestinians if they don't - and incremental steps to revive the shattered confidence on both sides.
The bottom line is that Sharon would like Cheney to succeed, and realizes that the timing of the Zinni mission is designed to maximize such prospects. However, it is not just up to Sharon.
During the last six months of 2000, the United States had hoped that it was on the verge of conflict resolution in the Middle East.
Now, given the current escalating violence, the mere prospect of crisis stabilization is a tall order.
Given failures in the past, it is hard to be overly optimistic about the prospects of the Zinni mission.
Yet the horrific death toll on the ground, coupled with the Cheney trip to the region, underscores the urgency of its success.
David Makovsky is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a contributing editor of U.S. News and World Report.
|
