Facing the future

Who will lead the Palestinians next - and in what direction?

MICHAEL WIDLANSKI
Jewish Renaissance Media

Who will become the face of the Palestinian people after Yasser Arafat dies or steps down as president of the Palestinian Authority?

Photo illustration by Jenna Johnson-Hill/Jewish Renaissance Media

One is a defender of Syria and a founder of Fatah, a violence-prone Palestinian organization. Another commands the Palestinian "security" forces on the West Bank and has actively sought to make himself known as a leader of the new intifada against Israel. A third, based in Gaza, runs counter-intelligence activities. A fourth is a polished diplomat who has eschewed terrorism in favor of diplomacy as the route to a Palestinian state. And a fifth, also an activist for talks with Israel, has built a political base for himself in the Palestinian legislature.

Each of these men - Farouk Qaddoumi, Jibril Rajoub, Muhammad Dahlan, Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmad Qreia - would like to be the leader of the next generation of Palestinians when Yasser Arafat's 30-year dominance of Palestinian life comes to an end.

Many Israelis and Western experts believe that Arafat, who is in his 70s and in shaky health, is losing his grip on his people, partly because of the corruption and ineffectiveness of his government and partly because of the popularity of the most militant terrorist leaders.

A hardy perennial

Thus, the question of Arafat's successor has taken on a new urgency.

But Arafat, like most Arab leaders for centuries, has never designated a successor. And the process by which one will be chosen will almost certainly be worked out either in secrecy - or in blood.

Who the next Palestinian leader will be and how he will be chosen is an issue of vital importance to Israeli leaders, most of whom have concluded over the last 11 months of violence that Arafat can never bring himself to reach a true peace accord with the Jewish State. In public, many say that Israel has to deal with Arafat - better the devil they know - but in private thoughtful leaders are weighing the options for a number of possible scenarios and outcomes if and when Palestinian leadership changes hands.

"I don't know if the person who comes after Arafat will be more convenient for us," says Yossi Beilin, the former Israeli Justice Minister, who, along with Shimon Peres, crafted the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations culminating in the Oslo Accords.

But Sylvan Shalom, Israel's Finance Minister, and the man seen as one of the leading powers inside Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud Party, says "the question is whether Arafat can continue in his position at a time when he's responsible for terror." That Shalom - certainly no hard-liner - is now publicly raising the issue of driving Arafat from office is only one of the most glaring signs that Arafat's days in power may be numbered.

As escalating Palestinian terror has been matched by Israeli "liquidations" of Palestinian terrorists, there are signs that Sharon may be more open to action that would shorten Arafat's days in power.

Sharon has been meeting with former prime minister Ehud Barak, and Barak has been widely featured in the Israeli and American press as saying that Arafat is no longer "a partner for peace." If and when Sharon reshuffles his cabinet - perhaps substituting Barak for Peres - it could signal that Arafat's days of leading the Palestinian national Authority may be over.

On the other hand, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said any Israeli attempt to remove Arafat from office could plunge the Middle East into a new regional war - something that Sharon says he wants to prevent at all costs.

"I don't think anyone on our side is making any kinds of plans based on all this," says Israeli Public Security minister Uzi Landau. "The question really is whether an increase in internal chaos inside the Palestinian Authority - or even the collapse of the Palestinian Authority - might be better or worse than the present situation."

The secret topic
While the question of a successor to Arafat is lively fodder for the Israeli media, the Palestinians try not to raise it.

"There has been talk about it but not in public, only behind closed doors," notes Haitham Hamad, a reporter for Associated Press Television who lives in Bethlehem.

In fact, the question turns up over and over again in conversations, even though many Palestinians - especially officials - try to put up a brave front that there is no reason for concern.

Ghazi Ghreib, a free-lance Arab journalist, says there are absolutely no articles in the local Arab press - newspapers, radio or television - on the subject.

"I saw an article on the subject in a London-based Arab newspaper, but I wouldn't even fax such an article here because it would only cause me trouble," he notes. "If I tried to bring such a press clipping into the country I'd either be investigated by the Shabak (The Israeli security service) or by the (Palestinian) Authority trying to find out which side I was supporting."

Even in private conversations, many Palestinians are wary of discussing who might become Arafat's successor for a number of reasons:

Any discussion of succession in the Arab world is suspected by Arab rulers as being tantamount to planning an assault on the present leadership.
Succession struggles in the Arab world have often been very bloody affairs, sometimes lasting months, even years.
Democracy in the Arab world is rare, and revealing one's ideas and preferences could prove dangerous, especially if a future leader believes someone has supported one of his rivals.
Discussion of a leadership struggle seems unseemly to many Palestinians who believe they should concentrate on the current military confrontation with Israel.

Candidates-in-waiting
Still, some names do crop up with great regularity.

Foremost among them is Farouk Qaddoumi. Qaddoumi is not an official member of the PA, but he is the head of the political department of the PLO, its "foreign minister." He is also a founding member of the PLO.

Qaddoumi, or "Abu Lutif" as he is commonly known, opposed the Oslo Accords. He is regarded as a Palestinian hard-liner with a strong allegiance to Syria.

"You have to remember that Abu Lutif has never been tainted with any corruption scandals," insists Ghreib. "He opposed Oslo, and he has good ties with Syria. And he has always been seen as a personal friend of Arafat as well as a founder of the Fatah movement," the core support group of the PLO and the PA.

If Qaddoumi succeeds Arafat, there would be scant chance of a renewed Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Perhaps for that very reason, the man most Western diplomats and many Israeli officials would like to see step into Arafat's shoes is Mahmoud Abbas, the executive secretary of the PLO, and a man regarded by many as a moderate.

Indeed, some Israeli pundits call Abbas "Arafat's deputy," but Arafat, like many Arab rulers, has no official deputy.

Abbas, often known as "Abu Mazen," has long been a prominent figure. He signed the Israeli-Palestinian Declaration of Principles, the first of the Oslo Accords, at the historic White House ceremony in September 1993. And left-wing Israeli politicians such as Shulamit Aloni, Yossi Beilin and Yossi Sarid have not hidden their regard for him as a negotiator.

After Arafat was taped making extreme statements calling for jihad against Israel, Aloni, the former Minister of Education, said "well, at least there is Abu Mazen." It was a reflection of the view that Abu Mazen was not terrorist, did not have a military past and thus was someone with whom a future settlement could be finalized.

Some Israeli leftist and Palestinian moderates also speak of Ahmad Qreia, the speaker of the Palestinian Legislature known as "Abu Ala" as another potential successor who would use diplomacy rather than violence. Like Abu Mazen, Abu Ala has been active in talks with Israel and has a base in the Fatah movement, but without a military past.

But members of the Israeli Right and others say he is far from the front-runner to succeed Arafat. Instead, they suggest that the leading contender is Jibril Rajoub, the commander of the West Bank counterintelligence for the PA who has been known to have his forces beat and torture political opponents.

Still, Rajoub's thick, thuggish exterior belies his active intelligence and political skills. Arafat once actually "fired" him, but had to recant the decision because Rajoub was just too powerful.

Having himself spent many years in Israeli jails, Rajoub is fluent in Hebrew and English, and Barak laughingly referred to the PA intelligence chief by a Hebrew name: Gavriel Regev.

"We see that Rajoub is trying to promote himself and that he does not let himself get out of the headlines," says Avi Yissacharov, the West Bank reporter for Israel State Radio, Kol Yisrael ("Voice of Israel"). He notes that Rajoub had decided to step up his public posture after Israeli forces bombed a Palestinian gun position on his roof that had opened fire on Israeli soldiers.

Israeli intelligence sources say that Rajoub is the single strongest official in the West Bank and that he has solid money reserves, having a stake in many West Bank businesses, including the gambling casino in Jericho. In addition, he is said to have strong ties to Arafat's own "money man" - Muhammad Rashid, who is believed to supervise Arafat's personal investments and foreign back accounts said to be worth several hundred million dollars.

If Rajoub succeeds to power, it might offer the best chance for stability in the West Bank, along with some form of continuation of an Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process.

Rajoub, however, has no power base in Gaza, where half the population is linked to the refugee camps. There the dominant military presence is Muhammad Dahlan, the dapper counter-intelligence chief who many Israeli officers say has personally directed terror attacks on Israel.

Dahlan, who knows that many Israelis would like to see him dead, has avoided any meetings with Israeli officials, especially after Israeli soldiers fired at a convoy in which he was riding. The Israelis say the Palestinians opened fire, but Dahlan says the Israelis were trying to assassinate him.

Dahlan is also not liked by Rajoub, and there is always a possibility that they could find it hard to work together after Arafat dies or becomes incapacitated.

That could lead to a split in the Palestinian Authority between the richer and more moderate West Bank and the poorer, refugee-oriented and more religiously inspired Gaza Strip.

Some Israeli politicians such as Infrastructure Minister Avigdor Lieberman say they would like to see that sort of break-up of the PA into several parts or cantons, which Israel, they say, could manage directly or indirectly.

A further option for succession that has often been applied in the Arab world - Egypt and Iraq are notable examples - is a group leadership. "Strongmen" like Rajoub and Dahlan might wield the real power behind "statesmen" like Abbas and Qreia.

Second-tier waiting
If none of the present contenders can prevail, thoughts may turn toward a second tier of leadership among whom the fastest rising star is Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the militant Tanzim militia that has killed scores of Israelis in the intifada. In a recent meeting with foreign correspondents, he raised the possibility that his organization and Hamas, the extremist Islamic organization that has been a kind of "opposition" to Arafat, will form a national unity regime after Arafat's death.

If there is a breakdown of the PA, Hamas - haraka al-muqawwimma al-Islamiyya ("the movement for Islamic Resistance") - could prove the real winner. Hamas has been responsible for some of the most hideous attacks on Israeli civilians, and it continues to reject any idea of making peace with the Jewish State.

Hamas has both a political and military wing, with both external and internal leaderships. Internally, it is headed by the aged, wheelchair-bound Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, who might not survive Arafat.

Publicly, Hamas claims it believes in "democracy," but as historian Bernard Lewis has observed, this might only mean democracy until the Islamists lock onto power, as they have in Iran and Sudan: one man, one vote, one-time only.

On the other hand, Hamas struggles with internal rivalries that could hamper any direct move toward power.

Because the Palestinian economy is so weak and dependent upon foreign aid for the very functioning of the Palestinian Authority, those who control the purse will influence, if not ultimately determine, who succeeds Arafat. Another important factor, experts say, will be the business relationships of the contending leaders - and their offspring who run those businesses.

In this season of violence, only an incurable optimist would believe that the death or forced removal of Arafat would lead to a speedy Palestinian rapprochement with Israel or to a democratic election that empowers a truly representative new leader.

The history of violent succession in the Arab world, dating back to the caliphs of the prophet Muhammed, suggests that the Palestinians may well be at each other's throats. The "Arab Rebellion" of 1936-39, for example, decimated the Palestinian intelligentsia and set the stage for the 1948 defeat of the Arab States.

The most wildly unlikely scenario is also perhaps the least attractive one from the Israeli viewpoint: that internecine strife following Arafat's death or expulsion could open the door for an outsider like Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Hosni Mubarak in Egypt to take control of the Palestinians. That sort of outside rule could easily embrace even more violence against Israeli civilians and the further downward spiral toward a disastrous full-scale regional conflict.

Michael Widlanski is a writer and a doctoral student in Arab Media Studies at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

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