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February 9, 2001/Shevet 16, 5761, Vol. 53, No.19
Sharon's election may alter U.S.-Israeli dynamic
MATTHEW E. BERGER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
WASHINGTON - The election of Ariel Sharon in Israel is likely to bring a new dynamic to the relationship between the United States and one of its strongest allies.
In contrast to the close engagement that characterized U.S.-Israeli relations over the past eight years, the new administrations in Jerusalem and Washington are likely to pursue, at least in the short term, a hands-off approach toward each other.
With his Likud Party back in power, Sharon is less likely to seek active engagement from the U.S. government. And President Bush, settling into his own new administration, is less likely to want to give it.
"I think the new administration's attention is specifically and intentionally elsewhere," said Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Forum, referring to the Bush administration.
Bush's announced agenda has been almost entirely domestic. His Middle East agenda has focused largely on Iraq, rather than on the failed Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
Most analysts believe that because of Sharon's reputation as a military leader who opposes concessions to the Palestinians, he will be greeted by the Bush administration and by Congress with respect, but cautious pessimism.
It is too early to tell if the cordial relations that are likely to appear in the first few days and weeks will evolve into cooperation or confrontation, which was the case the last time a Republican administration in Washington - under the elder George Bush - faced a Likud government in Israel led by Yitzhak Shamir.
Much will be determined by events on the ground: What kind of government will Sharon form? Will Israeli-Palestinian peace talks disintegrate into all-out confrontation? What policies will the Israeli premier pursue in fighting Palestinian violence?
David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the United States will wait and see whether Sharon is able to form a government and whether it incorporates members of the Labor Party.
The first test of the relationship between the two leaders may come when Sharon first comes to the United States and the Bush team must decide whether to invite him to the White House.
"They may be hesitant giving him the red carpet, but they are going to give him a chance," Makovsky said.
President Bush called Sharon on Feb. 6 to congratulate him and tell him he looked forward to working with him, "especially with regard to advancing peace and stability in the region."
"The United States has worked with every leader of Israel since its creation in 1948," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said in a statement.
"Our bilateral relationship is rock solid, as is the U.S. commitment to U.S. security."
At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell signaled Feb. 6 that while the Bush administration would not be "standoffish" with regard to Middle East peace, it would view it "in a broad regional context so that the quest doesn't stand alone in and of itself."
He also urged calm in the Arab world.
"This is the time to be patient, give the winner the opportunity to decide what kind of government will be formed" and to "refrain from any acts that would lead to violence," Powell said on Feb. 6.
For its part, the Arab world, say Arab analysts, will be watching the United States' interaction with Sharon.
It will be looking to see if the Bush administration will break from what they see as one-sided policies during the last eight years, said Rashid Khalidi, a professor of Middle East history and director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Chicago.
"I think, because of his record, Sharon will probably be held to a different standard than another Israeli government," Khalidi said. "If the Bush administration looks carefully at the mood of the Arab world in the last five or six months, they will listen to the anger that has permeated Arab opinions."
Meanwhile, the Israeli Embassy said it was already working with official Washington to make sure that the new prime minister would "receive general support."
Tom Smerling, Washington director of the Israel Policy Forum, said Sharon will use his personal skills to reach out to both the Israeli public and the United States leadership.
Smerling predicted Sharon will attempt to soften his public image from that of a military leader responsible for Israel's engagement in Lebanon to that of an elder statesman.
JTA staff writer Michael J. Jordan in New York contributed to this report.
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