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December 8, 2000/Kislev 11, 5761, Vol. 53, No.11
Oslo 'dead,' mini-war on, expert says
BARRY COHEN
Community Editor
After Camp David II, when Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat realized he would not get what he wanted from the Israelis, he changed tactics.
The damage caused by the ensuing violence will take years to repair; and tragically, the Israelis' optimism has turned to despair, their hope to weariness.
Barry Jacobs, American Jewish Committee's director of strategic studies in the Office of Government and International Affairs, made that assessment at an AJC lunch on Nov. 30. Six people attended the event at the AJC regional office conference room in Phoenix, including Rabbi Robert Kravitz, executive director of the AJC area office.
"A mini-war is going on, and the Oslo peace treaty is over. The (peace) process is dead," said Jacobs, referring the agreement signed in Washington Sept. 13, 1993, initiating negotiations between the Palestine Liberation Organization (now the PA) and the Israeli government to pursue a final solution to their decades-long conflict.
"This is a time of great uncertainty and even greater depression," he added. Even on the Israeli political right, "there is no gleeful, 'I told you so.' " Those on the right wanted to be wrong when they said Arafat was not a true peace partner, Jacobs said.
"Everybody wanted the issues resolved to get on with the work of building a nation," said Kravitz. When the Palestinians chose the path of violence and Arafat again missed a chance for peace, he explained, the Israelis felt a sense of sadness, "of being deflated."
"But the Israelis I know are not in a position of weariness that would jeopardize their security."
Jacobs spoke about the July Camp David II peace negotiations and their aftermath. He said that despite widespread belief that President Clinton forced the peace process on the Israelis and the Palestinians, it is a myth.
"The truth is, (Prime Minister Ehud) Barak came to Clinton and said, 'I want you to do this. We need a peace treaty. ... I'm tired of this step-by-step. I want to break through.' "
When Arafat realized he would not get what he wanted - redeployment to the 1967 borders and a Palestinian "right of return" - he could not accept what Barak offered, despite the fact it was more generous than any Israeli politician ever offered before, said Jacobs. What forced Arafat's hand, Jacobs added, was his reassurance to the Palestinians that at the end of the peace process, their territory would extend to the pre-1967 Six-Day-War borders, and most refugees would be able to return to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
Whether Arafat expected a more liberal offer, he said, is unknown. "Trying to figure out exactly what Yasser Arafat thinks ... apparently is a full-time occupation for many in Israel."
Jacobs said one possible reason Arafat chose violence over negotiations is because he "loves the idea of Armageddon. He loves being down in the bunker." Further, Jacobs speculated, Arafat knows Israel will never win a war of "tanks vs. children."
What has also increased pressure on the Israelis is the violence between Israeli Jews and the Israeli Arabs, who Jacobs says are calling themselves "Israeli-Palestinians."
The latest unrest has ended discussion of allowing a number of Palestinian refugees to return to the territories from exile in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, among other nations. The last thing the Israelis want, said Jacobs, is a larger Arab population in either Israel proper or the territories.
In light of the recent weeks of violence, including firefights between Palestinian police and Israel defense forces, there is sentiment within Israel of "disengagement" or "separation" from the Palestinians. But this does not necessarily bode well for the Palestinians, Jacobs said.
Economically, the Palestinians depend upon Israel, said Jacobs; and while many Arab nations may have pledged massive sums of aid, the pledges have not become contributions. "The truth is, to date Norway, little Norway, has given more money to the Palestinians than all of the Arab states combined."
In addition, he pointed out, if the Palestinians unilaterally declare a state, the U. S. Congress has made clear that that state will receive no foreign aid from the United States.
"The Palestinians are in a difficult situation," said Allen Feinstein of Phoenix, who attended the lunch. They lack the money, experience and skills to be independent, he said.
If Israel does not pull back from the areas in which violence is occurring, "then they will help raise another generation of Palestinians who despise Israel and the Jews," said Feinstein.
Jacobs said it could take up to 10 years to return to the level of mutual acceptance and understanding reached before the latest violence.
Jacobs served in the now-defunct U. S. Information Agency in Greece, Cyprus, Venezuela, Israel, India and El Salvador. In 1994, he became the Discovery Channel's first director for international media for its Latin America and Asian networks.
"I found it helpful to have him, in a sense, to sum up - to hear it from Barry Jacobs is to hear from a well-informed insider and an American Jew," said Fred Wabnik of Phoenix, who also attended the lunch.
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