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December 1, 2000/Kislev 10, 5761, Vol. 53, No.10
Barak behind in public opinion polls
DAVID LANDAU
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
JERUSALEM - Prime Minister Ehud Barak has launched an election campaign amid violent conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
He hopes to conclude the campaign some time in the spring with renewed peace hopes, or, better yet, with a draft peace agreement that he can submit to the public as his election platform.
If Barak achieves a deal with Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, he may yet pull back from the brink of political defeat and win the election.
If he fails, it is hard to see Barak defeating the presumptive Likud candidate, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who currently leads Barak by 20 percentage points in public opinion polls.
After acceding the evening of Nov. 28 to the Knesset majority's obvious desire for early elections, Barak made it clear that vigorous diplomatic efforts would continue during the coming months of "lame-duck" government.
Barak insisted that his diplomatic efforts would continue alongside the Israel Defense Force's efforts to contain and reduce Palestinian violence.
Israeli military sources reported a sharp decline Nov. 28 in the number and intensity of violent incidents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
If this reduction was orchestrated by Arafat and was intended to help Barak out of his parliamentary predicament, it plainly came too late.
But there is no doubt that the Palestinians are closely following Israel's intricate political drama. And they will have to recognize the fact that their behavior - on the "war" front and in the peace talks - could directly and critically influence the outcome of Israel's domestic contest.
On the other hand, some skeptics contend that the Palestinians are not genuinely interested in a peace agreement and would prefer to face a harder-line Likud government that would take the international blame if peace talks founder.
In any case, events between Israelis and Palestinians on the ground could prove to have a negative and even dangerous impact in the election run-up.
The election probably will take place in May, but who will the candidates be?
Barak announced on Nov. 28 that he would run as the Labor candidate.
He appeared to share the widespread assumption that Netanyahu will be back to head the Likud.
But Barak's candidacy is not a foregone conclusion.
Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, for one, certainly sees himself as prime ministerial material.
There may yet be other candidates.
Israel Radio reported the evening of Nov. 28 that the speaker of the Knesset, Avraham Burg, would also contend for the Labor leadership.
Burg has been something of a dissident figure in Labor since Barak's May 1999 election victory, when he ignored Burg's great popularity within the party and declined to offer him a Cabinet seat.
Burg then ran for the largely ceremonial role of Knesset speaker, defeating an effort by Barak to block him.
As a yarmulka-wearing man whose late father was leader of the National Religious Party, Burg has appeal among traditional and some moderate-Orthodox voters.
Furthermore, as a consistent dove - he was a leader of Peace Now in his younger years - he is well liked on the left.
Such a resume might allow Burg to unite diverse Labor factions behind his banner. He also is a charismatic public speaker and a tough and experienced political infighter, skills he would need against Netanyahu.
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