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October 6, 2000/7 Tishri 5761, Vol. 53, No.2
Regional paradigm must drive Arab-Israeli peace
DORE GOLD
Special to Jewish News
Even as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak rummages through the pieces of the failed Camp David summit and confronts the new outbreak of violence in Israel, the true threats to the process continue to exert their influence from beyond Washington and Jerusalem. An entirely new strategic climate has enveloped the Middle East region, casting its shadow over the negotiating table.
The current peace process was born in 1991 under conditions unique to the Middle East of that time. A major threat to Israel since its birth, Iraq had been defeated, while neighboring Iran was still recovering from its earlier war. The Soviet Union, once the main backer of Arab states hostile to Israel, was itself crumbling. The PLO had been stripped of the political clout of Iraq, its favored Gulf War backer, and the financial clout of Saddam Hussein's wartime enemies.
Today, however, all of those conditions have changed. Russia has emerged as a key player in reviving the mullahs of the Gulf, financially fortifying their arsenals of deadly weapons while politically undermining the power of the international community to stop them. As a result, Iraq and Iran are separately developing longer-range missiles and the seeds of a nuclear arsenal. And as the reach of their weapons increases, so, too, does the reach of their political influence in the Middle East.
In an address to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, former UNSCOM Executive Chairman Richard Butler warned that Iraq's current weapons buildup represents a "crisis in global security." He described as "of genocidal character" a private comment made to him by Iraqi deputy Prime Minister Tariq Azziz, in which Azziz admitted that Iraq is fortifying an arsenal of biological weapons "to deal with the Zionist entity."
These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by Russia itself. Russia allowed its latest missile technology to flow into Iraq and especially Iran, while it refused to cooperate with others on the UN Security Council in monitoring and disarming these states.
These developments have enabled Iraq and Iran to become major threats to Israel and key power brokers in the Middle East. It would take an Iraqi division less time to reach the Jordan River than it would take Israel to call up its reserves, and an Iraqi missile is seven minutes from Tel Aviv.
Palestinians have developed strong sympathies with Iraq, while Lebanese Shiites have similarly strong ties to Iran. The enhanced missile capabilities of the Gulf states, with the possibility of a nuclear program, could embolden Palestinian hard-liners and erode a future Israeli-Palestinian agreement that leaves Israel more vulnerable than ever.
A Middle East peace process that does not take the entire region into account is an untenable risk. If it fails to appreciate the threats of Iraqi and Iranian missiles, it will not only fail to bring peace, but make the prospect of armed struggle more likely and more dangerous.
Dore Gold, former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, is director of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. This piece was adopted from a recent study by the center highlighting the new Iraqi and Iranian missile threat.
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