|
|
September 15, 2000/15 Elul 5760, Vol. 52, No.53
Report: Israel will be home to most Jews in 2080
GAYLE HORWITZ
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
WASHINGTON - Migration to Israel is expected to almost double the country's Jewish population to 10 million by 2080.
Meanwhile, the number of Jews living in the United States is expected to drop by a third - to just 3.8 million. Worldwide, the number of Jews is estimated to rise slightly during the next 80 years - eventually hitting 15 million.
These projections are at the core of a new demographic study of world Jewish population trends that was published this week in the American Jewish Yearbook 2000, produced by the American Jewish Committee.
The article, "Prospecting the Jewish Future: Population Projections, 2000-2080," predicts future Jewish population trends in the United States and Israel, as well as in the former Soviet Union, Europe, Latin America and other Jewish population centers throughout the world.
Based on existing data from studies commissioned independently by world Jewish communities, the report was authored by a trio of leading demographers from Hebrew University in Jerusalem: Sergio DellaPergola, Uzi Rebhun and Mark Tolts.
The study portrays change over the next 80 years, as the composition of world Jewry surges in Israel and dwindles elsewhere in the world. As early as 2010, Israel and the United States - which currently is home to the largest number of Jews - are expected to be equal.
By the middle of the century, Israel will be home to the majority of the world's Jews, particularly Jewish youth.
Meanwhile, the percentage of elderly Jews in the Diaspora will continue to increase, especially as baby boomers hit 65 during the next 20 years. By 2080, more than 40 percent of all Diaspora Jews will be 65 and over.
The study's findings, which carry with them enormous political implications for the United States and Israel, may surprise the American Jewish community in particular.
"It's going to be a wake-up call," said Lawrence Grossman, editor of the American Jewish Year Book. "American Jews are in a Golden Age. We've never had it so good. But there is a cloud on the horizon."
North America Jewry will make up an even larger share of the Diaspora Jewish population than it does today, as Jewish populations around the world outside of Israel will decrease.
Longer life expectancy, low fertility rates and diminished Jewish identification will likely be the chief causes of the plunge.
"The future demographic development of North American Jewry will depend on the present generation's ability to transmit a Jewish identity to the next," concluded the demographers in the study.
Results of the population study imply a major alteration in the relationship between Israel and the Diaspora is under way, the report said.
As the number of Israeli Jews grows, the country will have to provide for its own economic well-being with less help from the Diaspora.
Israel will also take the lead in fostering Jewish educational and cultural continuity worldwide, as Diaspora Jews put their increasingly limited finances toward caring for their local communities.
|
