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January 7, 2000/29 Tevet 5760, Vol. 52, No.18
Golan deal a good investment for U.S.
DAVID TWERSKY
New Jersey Jewish News
The higher price of oil is helping finance Russia's war in Chechnya and undercutting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's chances to win a referendum on peace with Syria.
Barak's troubles are not merely the result of Israel's economic situation - poverty statistics are all up, and the populist Shas Party is fighting not only for the poor but to cover the huge deficit of its own school network. While Shas leaders object to the idea their votes on the Golan are for sale, it's clear that Barak can't hold them unless he finds a way to meet the Orthodox party's financial demands.
America, where a buoyant Wall Street is helping local, state and the federal government, has to find a way to finance the costs of a Golan settlement, should the negotiations between Israel and Syria produce a deal. (Estimates start at $10 billion.) Logically, the argument over whether America should help finance an Israel-Syria deal should follow an agreement; but both Damascus and Jerusalem are looking to United States involvement as a key ingredient of a settlement. Without an active U.S. diplomatic role now and continuing U.S. diplomatic, security and financial roles later, there won't be a deal.
So critics who prefer holding on to the Golan are attacking on two fronts - Israeli security and U.S. overseas financial commitments.
As anyone who's been to the Heights knows, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand its strategic significance. But the rocket scientists - in this case an Israeli cabinet top-heavy with former military brass - are the ones proposing a Golan-for-peace-and-security package. Just in case you forgot, the prime minister is a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff. Tourism Minister Amnon Lipkin-Shahak succeeded Barak as chief of staff. Science Minister Matan Vilna'i was deputy chief of staff. Deputy Prime Minister Yitzhak Mordechai commanded the Northern, Central and Southern Commands. Communications Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer was commanding officer in southern Lebanon and military governor of Judea and Samaria. Minister of Industry and Trade Ran Cohen was a colonel in the paratroops and artillery. The president, Ezer Weizman, headed the air force that essentially won the Six Day War on the morning of June 5 by taking out the Egyptian air force on the ground.
We don't believe in government by coup d'etat; just because a Golan deal wins the support of a bunch of former generals who risked their entire adult lives defending Israel from Arab attacks doesn't make it right. But doesn't it stand to reason that Barak, Lipkin-Shahak, Vilna'i, et al have some understanding of Israel's security interests?
In a recent speech to Jewish Republicans, GOP presidential candidate Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah charged the Clinton administration with having "a naive, liberal view of peace." Whether this is a fair assessment of the Clinton administration, it is decidedly not fair with regard to the Golan, where a peace will be an IDF peace, with critical decisions shaped by the top IDF alumni now serving in the government. One might weigh all the factors and come up with a different answer, but can Barak, Lipkin-Shahak, Vilna'i and their comrades be accused of having "a naive, liberal view of peace"?
As to the more than $10 billion price tag, let's take a look at previous U.S. "investments" in Middle East war and Middle East peace.
At Camp David in 1979, President Jimmy Carter committed the United States to providing billions of dollars of aid for both Israel and Egypt. According to the Congressional Research Service, Israel received $67.7 billion in U.S. aid from 1979 to 1999. In that same period, Egypt received $45.7 billion in aid.
Now let's look at other major U.S. investments in the region. The Gulf War, fought to defend the oil supplies of the Western world, cost $61.1 billion. Allies (including the oil emirates, the Saudis and the Japanese) ponied up $53.7 billion in cash and in-kind aid, leaving the U.S. treasury with a bill of $7.4 billion. But that doesn't include the ongoing costs to the navy of patrolling the Gulf waters and the no-fly zones and of maintaining combat air units in Turkey and the sanctions regime. The CRS estimates the cost from 1991 to '96 at $3.2 billion; the costs since '96 aren't in yet.
Our Washington source estimates that Israel will get more than $20 billion in military aid over 10 years, along with a one-shot grant for intelligence gathering, listening posts and security measures meant to compensate for the loss of the Golan.
What will Syria get? Given the dim view of Hafez al-Assad's regime in this country, we suspect Damascus won't get anything near what Cairo got from Washington. Syria's serious money will have to come from the Europeans. Even so, as the first round of renewed talks ended last week, the World Bank announced its first-ever investment in Syria - $1 million in an irrigation project.
Is it worth it? Just imagine the Gulf War without the Egypt-Israel peace; imagine the consequences to this country and its allies if Iraq's call to the Arab masses sparked successful uprisings. Imagine how much it is going to cost next time Iraq or Iran, this time armed with unconventional weapons and theater delivery systems, moves in on the tiny, underpopulated, oil-soaked emirates across the water. No guarantee, of course, that an Israel-Syria deal prevents Iraq or Iran from going ballistic, but it is definitively in the United States' interest to wean the bad dictatorial Assad regime from the even worse, and far more dangerous, Iraqis and Iranians. A Syria deal, diplomats say, will open the door to peace agreements with the Saudis, Gulf emirates and North African countries (with the probable exception of Libya), further isolating Baghdad and Teheran.
Is $20 billion to $30 billion a lot of money? You betcha. But calculate the costs of letting this chance for change slip by. How much will it cost America if the bottom falls out and the price of oil shoots up? And the Dow Jones falls.
The only ones left smiling then would be the Russians.
David Twersky is editor-in-chief of the New Jersey Jewish News in Whippany.
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